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Methodology

Prediction Methodology

This page explains how prediction pages should use probability, confidence, source notes and update timestamps.

Methodology How signals are read Probability, confidence, movement, expiry rules and source notes should work together so users can understand each prediction.

How NaijaScore9 structures prediction intelligence

Prediction pages should combine visible market context, probability estimates, confidence signals, source notes, expiry rules, update timestamps and related market references. A page is strongest when users can understand what the market is asking, how it resolves and what data supports the current view.

Core signals

  • Probability: the estimated likelihood of an outcome.
  • Confidence: how strong or stable the available data appears.
  • Source notes: the official or editorial source used to resolve the event.
  • Movement: how the market has changed over time.