Football prediction

2. Bundesliga Matchday 11

Arminia Bielefeld vs Holstein Kiel Prediction

Saturday 7 November, 13:00 WAT: Holstein Kiel welcome Arminia Bielefeld in the 2. Bundesliga (matchday 11). Home win 27%, draw 35%, away win 38% according to our model, and the pick is Arminia Bielefeld or draw (73%).

Holstein KielDLDWL

13:00Sat 7 Nov 2026 · WAT

Arminia BielefeldDWWLW

Holstein-Stadion, Kiel

Our prediction

Arminia Bielefeld or draw73% probability · best odds 1.57

27%35%38%

Holstein KielDrawArminia Bielefeld

Most likely score: 0 - 1
Both teams to score: 58%
Expected goals: 0.9 – 1.1
Double chance: 1X 62% · 12 65% · X2 73%

Model advice: Double chance : draw or Arminia Bielefeld

Form and team strength

Last 5 games	Holstein Kiel	Arminia Bielefeld
Results	DLDWL	DWWLW
Goals scored per game	0.8	1.6
Goals conceded per game	0.6	1.0

Holstein KielArminia Bielefeld

33%

67%Form

33%

67%Attack

63%

38%Defence

72%

28%Poisson

15%

85%Head to head

36%

64%Goals

42%

58%Overall

Head-to-head

0Holstein Kiel1Draws6Arminia Bielefeld

23 Jan 2026Arminia Bielefeld2 - 2Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
10 Aug 2025Holstein Kiel0 - 2Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
2 Apr 2023Holstein Kiel2 - 3Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
14 Jan 2023Arminia Bielefeld2 - 1Holstein KielFriendlies Clubs
14 Jan 2023Holstein Kiel- - -Arminia BielefeldFriendlies Clubs
17 Sep 2022Arminia Bielefeld4 - 2Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga

Best odds (1X2)

Holstein Kiel2.50Pinnaclefair 38%

Draw3.55Dafabetfair 28%

Arminia Bielefeld2.91Pinnaclefair 34%

Compared across 10 bookmakers. Market margin 7.9%.

Compare all Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld odds

Model vs bookmakers

Outcome	Our model	Market (fair)	Edge
Holstein Kiel	27%	38.4%	-11.4
Draw	35%	27.7%	+7.3
Arminia Bielefeld	38%	33.8%	+4.2

A positive edge means our model rates the outcome higher than the bookmakers’ margin-free price. It is a research signal, not a guarantee.

2. Bundesliga table position

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Form
7	Arminia Bielefeld	10	+1	14	WLWWD
17	Holstein Kiel	10	-2	8	LWDLD

Full 2. Bundesliga table and predictions

Prediction analysis

Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld: our prediction for 7 Nov 2026 WAT

Saturday 7 November, 13:00 WAT is the date for this 2. Bundesliga matchday 11 meeting at Holstein-Stadion. Holstein Kiel are 17th with 8 points from 10 games (goal difference -2); Arminia Bielefeld are 7th with 14 points from 10 (+1).

Holstein Kiel and Arminia Bielefeld form

Over their last 5 matches Holstein Kiel have managed 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats (DLDWL). Arminia Bielefeld have a mixed recent record of 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat (DWWLW) across their last 5. Over those games Holstein Kiel averaged 0.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per match, Arminia Bielefeld 1.6 and 1.0.

What the numbers say

Arminia Bielefeld are the model’s favourites at 38%, 11 points clear of Holstein Kiel, while the draw is rated 35%. Expected goals come out at 0.9 for Holstein Kiel and 1.1 for Arminia Bielefeld, and the most likely single scoreline is 0-1 (15%). Over 2.5 goals is rated 32% and both teams to score (GG) 40%. The clearest strengths in the team comparison: Arminia Bielefeld in attack (67-33), Holstein Kiel in defence (63-38), Arminia Bielefeld in form (67-33).

Head-to-head record

In the last 7 meetings Holstein Kiel won 0, Arminia Bielefeld won 6 and 1 ended level, an average of 3.7 goals per game. Both teams scored in 6 of them and 6 went over 2.5 goals. The most recent meeting, on 23 Jan 2026, finished Arminia Bielefeld 2-2 Holstein Kiel.

Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld odds

Across 10 bookmakers the best prices are 2.50 for Holstein Kiel (Pinnacle), 3.55 for the draw (Dafabet) and 2.91 for Arminia Bielefeld (Pinnacle). With the margin removed the market reads 38% / 28% / 34%. Our model is 7.3 points higher than the bookmakers on the draw – the biggest disagreement on this match. Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.85 and under at 2.07.

Our Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld prediction

Our pick for Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld is Arminia Bielefeld or draw, rated 73%, best price 1.57. Correct score suggestion: 0-1. Check confirmed line-ups an hour before kick-off – a late absence can change the picture.

Quick answers

Who will win Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld?: The model gives Holstein Kiel 27%, the draw 35% and Arminia Bielefeld 38%. Our tip is Arminia Bielefeld or draw.
What is the predicted score for Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld?: 0-1 is the most likely scoreline (15%), from expected goals of 0.9 and 1.1.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld?: GG is rated 40% by the model and the best GG price is 1.62.
When and where is Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld?: Saturday 7 November, 13:00 WAT, 2. Bundesliga (matchday 11), Holstein-Stadion.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ only – bet responsibly.