Football prediction

Ecuador Liga Pro predictions Placement group - 6

Emelec vs Libertad Prediction

Libertad host Emelec in the Liga Pro (placement group - 6) on Saturday 7 November, 20:00 WAT. Our model rates the match 41% / 36% / 23% (home / draw / away), and the pick is Libertad or draw (77%).

LibertadWWWLD

20:00Sat 7 Nov 2026 · WAT

EmelecLLWLL

Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne, Loja

This fixture has been played. The final score and the next meeting appear with the next daily update.

Our prediction

Libertad or draw77% probability · best odds 1.36

41%36%23%

LibertadDrawEmelec

Most likely score: 1 - 1
Both teams to score: 53%
Expected goals: 1.9 – 1.1
Double chance: 1X 77% · 12 64% · X2 59%

Model advice: Double chance : Libertad or draw

Form and team strength

Last 5 games	Libertad	Emelec
Results	WWWLD	LLWLL
Goals scored per game	2.0	1.2
Goals conceded per game	1.0	1.8

LibertadEmelec

77%

23%Form

63%

38%Attack

64%

36%Defence

72%

28%Poisson

50%

50%Head to head

50%

50%Goals

63%

38%Overall

Head-to-head

2Libertad5Draws1Emelec

20 Sep 2026Emelec1 - 2LibertadLiga Pro
4 Sep 2026Libertad1 - 1EmelecLiga Pro
10 May 2026Emelec1 - 1LibertadLiga Pro
3 Aug 2025Libertad1 - 2EmelecLiga Pro
12 Apr 2025Emelec1 - 1LibertadLiga Pro
30 Nov 2024Libertad2 - 1EmelecLiga Pro

Best odds (1X2)

Libertad2.39Pinnaclefair 39%

Draw3.20Pinnaclefair 30%

Emelec3.04Pinnaclefair 31%

Compared across 6 bookmakers. Market margin 11.1%.

Compare all Libertad vs Emelec odds

Model vs bookmakers

Outcome	Our model	Market (fair)	Edge
Libertad	41%	39.1%	+1.9
Draw	36%	29.7%	+6.3
Emelec	23%	31.1%	-8.1

A positive edge means our model rates the outcome higher than the bookmakers’ margin-free price. It is a research signal, not a guarantee.

Liga Pro table position

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Form
7	Libertad	30	-1	41	LWDLW
10	Emelec	30	-9	39	LWDWL
7	Libertad	36	+3	51	LDLWW
10	Emelec	36	-11	45	WLLWL

Full Liga Pro table and predictions

Prediction analysis

Libertad vs Emelec preview, prediction and stats – 7 Nov 2026 WAT

Saturday 7 November, 20:00 WAT is the date for this Liga Pro placement group – 6 meeting at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne. Libertad are 7th with 51 points from 36 games (goal difference +3); Emelec are 10th with 45 points from 36 (-11).

Libertad and Emelec form

Libertad have a mixed recent record of 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat (WWWLD) across their last 5. Form is a concern for Emelec, who have 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats from their last 5 (LLWLL). Over those games Libertad averaged 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match, Emelec 1.2 and 1.8.

What the numbers say

Libertad are the model’s favourites at 41%, 18 points clear of Emelec, while the draw is rated 36%. Expected goals come out at 1.9 for Libertad and 1.1 for Emelec, and the most likely single scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals is rated 57% and both teams to score (GG) 56%. The clearest strengths in the team comparison: Libertad in attack (63-38), Libertad in defence (64-36), Libertad in form (77-23).

Head-to-head record

In the last 8 meetings Libertad won 2, Emelec won 1 and 5 ended level, an average of 1.9 goals per game. Both teams scored in 6 of them and 3 went over 2.5 goals. The most recent meeting, on 20 Sep 2026, finished Emelec 1-2 Libertad.

Libertad vs Emelec odds

Across 6 bookmakers the best prices are 2.39 for Libertad (Pinnacle), 3.20 for the draw (Pinnacle) and 3.04 for Emelec (Pinnacle). With the margin removed the market reads 39% / 30% / 31%. Our model is 6.3 points higher than the bookmakers on the draw – the biggest disagreement on this match. Over 2.5 goals is available at 2.04 and under at 1.80.

Our Libertad vs Emelec prediction

Our pick for Libertad vs Emelec is Libertad or draw, rated 77%, best price 1.36. Correct score suggestion: 1-1. Check confirmed line-ups an hour before kick-off – a late absence can change the picture.

Quick answers

Who will win Libertad vs Emelec?: The model gives Libertad 41%, the draw 36% and Emelec 23%. Our tip is Libertad or draw.
What is the predicted score for Libertad vs Emelec?: 1-1 is the most likely scoreline (10%), from expected goals of 1.9 and 1.1.
Will both teams score in Libertad vs Emelec?: GG is rated 56% by the model and the best GG price is 1.75.
When and where is Libertad vs Emelec?: Saturday 7 November, 20:00 WAT, Liga Pro (placement group – 6), Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne.

Compare every market on the Libertad vs Emelec odds page.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ only – bet responsibly.

Prediction history

Recent prediction snapshots

September 20, 2026 · Liga Pro0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 · 1–2

September 4, 2026 · Liga Pro45% / 45% / 10% · 1–1

May 10, 2026 · Liga Pro0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 · 1–1

August 3, 2025 · Liga Pro0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 · 1–2

April 12, 2025 · Liga Pro0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 · 1–1

November 30, 2024 · Liga Pro0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 · 2–1

June 1, 2024 · Liga Pro0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 · 0–0