Football prediction

Serie A Matchday 34

Fluminense vs Vitoria Prediction

Vitoria vs Fluminense kicks off on Saturday 7 November, 00:00 WAT in the Serie A (matchday 34). The model gives Vitoria 38%, the draw 35% and Fluminense 27%, and the pick is Vitoria or draw (73%).

VitoriaWLDDL

00:00Sat 7 Nov 2026 · WAT

FluminenseWLLLW

Barradao, Salvador

Our prediction

Vitoria or draw73% probability · best odds 1.53

38%35%27%

VitoriaDrawFluminense

Most likely score: 1 - 1
Both teams to score: 53%
Expected goals: 1.3 – 1.4
Double chance: 1X 73% · 12 65% · X2 62%

Model advice: Double chance : Vitoria or draw

Form and team strength

Last 5 games	Vitoria	Fluminense
Results	WLDDL	WLLLW
Goals scored per game	1.4	1.6
Goals conceded per game	1.2	1.2

VitoriaFluminense

45%

55%Form

47%

53%Attack

50%

50%Defence

61%

39%Poisson

62%

38%Head to head

55%

45%Goals

53%

47%Overall

Head-to-head

2Vitoria4Draws2Fluminense

9 May 2026Fluminense2 - 2VitoriaSerie A
20 Sep 2025Vitoria0 - 1FluminenseSerie A
20 Apr 2025Fluminense1 - 1VitoriaSerie A
26 Oct 2024Vitoria2 - 1FluminenseSerie A
27 Jun 2024Fluminense0 - 1VitoriaSerie A
6 Sep 2018Fluminense0 - 0VitoriaSerie A

Best odds (1X2)

Vitoria2.88Bet365fair 34%

Draw3.401xBetfair 29%

Fluminense2.571xBetfair 38%

Compared across 6 bookmakers. Market margin 5.9%.

Compare all Vitoria vs Fluminense odds

Model vs bookmakers

Outcome	Our model	Market (fair)	Edge
Vitoria	38%	33.8%	+4.2
Draw	35%	28.7%	+6.3
Fluminense	27%	37.5%	-10.5

A positive edge means our model rates the outcome higher than the bookmakers’ margin-free price. It is a research signal, not a guarantee.

Serie A table position

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Form
4	Fluminense	33	+10	54	WLLLW
15	Vitoria	33	-13	38	LDDLW

Full Serie A table and predictions

Prediction analysis

Vitoria vs Fluminense preview, prediction and stats – 7 Nov 2026 WAT

This Serie A matchday 34 fixture is played on Saturday 7 November, 00:00 WAT at Barradao. Vitoria are 15th with 38 points from 33 games (goal difference -13); Fluminense are 4th with 54 points from 33 (+10). The 16-point gap shows the difference in quality this season.

Vitoria and Fluminense form

Over their last 5 matches Vitoria have managed 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats (WLDDL). Fluminense are struggling for results: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in the last 5 (WLLLW). Over those games Vitoria averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match, Fluminense 1.6 and 1.2.

What the numbers say

Vitoria are the model’s favourites at 38%, 11 points clear of Fluminense, while the draw is rated 35%. Expected goals come out at 1.3 for Vitoria and 1.4 for Fluminense, and the most likely single scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals is rated 51% and both teams to score (GG) 55%. The clearest strengths in the team comparison: Fluminense in form (55-45).

Head-to-head record

In the last 8 meetings Vitoria won 2, Fluminense won 2 and 4 ended level, an average of 2.3 goals per game. Both teams scored in 5 of them and 4 went over 2.5 goals. The most recent meeting, on 9 May 2026, finished Fluminense 2-2 Vitoria.

Vitoria vs Fluminense odds

Across 6 bookmakers the best prices are 2.88 for Vitoria (Bet365), 3.40 for the draw (1xBet) and 2.57 for Fluminense (1xBet). With the margin removed the market reads 34% / 29% / 38%. Our model is 6.3 points higher than the bookmakers on the draw – the biggest disagreement on this match. Over 2.5 goals is available at 2.05 and under at 1.83.

Our Vitoria vs Fluminense prediction

The selection we are backing in Vitoria vs Fluminense: Vitoria or draw (73% confidence, best price 1.53). Correct score suggestion: 1-1. Check confirmed line-ups an hour before kick-off – a late absence can change the picture.

Quick answers

Who will win Vitoria vs Fluminense?: The model gives Vitoria 38%, the draw 35% and Fluminense 27%. Our tip is Vitoria or draw.
What is the predicted score for Vitoria vs Fluminense?: 1-1 is the most likely scoreline (12%), from expected goals of 1.3 and 1.4.
Will both teams score in Vitoria vs Fluminense?: GG is rated 55% by the model and the best GG price is 1.76.
When and where is Vitoria vs Fluminense?: Saturday 7 November, 00:00 WAT, Serie A (matchday 34), Barradao.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ only – bet responsibly.