Football prediction

Liga MX predictions Apertura - 16

Guadalajara Chivas vs Leon Prediction

Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas kicks off on Monday 9 November, 03:10 WAT in the Liga MX (apertura - 16). The model gives Leon 10%, the draw 45% and Guadalajara Chivas 45%, and the pick is Guadalajara Chivas or draw (90%).

LeonDLWDL

03:10Mon 9 Nov 2026 · WAT

Guadalajara ChivasDDWWW

Estadio León, Leon

Our prediction

Guadalajara Chivas or draw90% probability

10%45%45%

LeonDrawGuadalajara Chivas

Most likely score: 1 - 1
Both teams to score: 57%
Expected goals: 1.2 – 1.7
Double chance: 1X 55% · 12 55% · X2 90%

Model advice: Double chance : draw or Guadalajara Chivas

Form and team strength

Last 5 games	Leon	Guadalajara Chivas
Results	DLWDL	DDWWW
Goals scored per game	1.6	1.6
Goals conceded per game	1.8	0.8

LeonGuadalajara Chivas

31%

69%Form

50%

50%Attack

31%

69%Defence

37%

63%Poisson

60%

40%Head to head

36%

64%Goals

41%

59%Overall

Head-to-head

3Leon0Draws5Guadalajara Chivas

19 Mar 2026Guadalajara Chivas5 - 0LeonLiga MX
20 Jul 2025Leon1 - 0Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
29 Jan 2025Leon2 - 1Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
19 Sep 2024Guadalajara Chivas2 - 0LeonLiga MX
9 Mar 2024Guadalajara Chivas1 - 2LeonLiga MX
9 Sep 2023Guadalajara Chivas2 - 0LeonFriendlies Clubs

Best odds

Bookmaker prices for this fixture are not open yet. Markets usually open one to three days before kick-off.

Liga MX table position

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Form
2	Guadalajara Chivas	15	+11	29	WWWDD

Full Liga MX table and predictions

Prediction analysis

Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas preview, prediction and stats – 9 Nov 2026 WAT

Monday 9 November, 03:10 WAT is the date for this Liga MX apertura – 16 meeting at Estadio León.

Leon and Guadalajara Chivas form

Over their last 5 matches Leon have managed 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats (DLWDL). Guadalajara Chivas have a mixed recent record of 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats (DDWWW) across their last 5. Over those games Leon averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per match, Guadalajara Chivas 1.6 and 0.8.

What the numbers say

Guadalajara Chivas are the model’s favourites at 45%, 35 points clear of Leon, while the draw is rated 45%. Expected goals come out at 1.2 for Leon and 1.7 for Guadalajara Chivas, and the most likely single scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals is rated 55% and both teams to score (GG) 57%. The clearest strengths in the team comparison: Guadalajara Chivas in defence (69-31), Guadalajara Chivas in form (69-31).

Head-to-head record

In the last 8 meetings Leon won 3, Guadalajara Chivas won 5 and 0 ended level, an average of 2.6 goals per game. Both teams scored in 3 of them and 4 went over 2.5 goals. The most recent meeting, on 19 Mar 2026, finished Guadalajara Chivas 5-0 Leon.

Our Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas prediction

Our pick for Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas is Guadalajara Chivas or draw, rated 90%. Correct score suggestion: 1-1. Check confirmed line-ups an hour before kick-off – a late absence can change the picture.

Quick answers

Who will win Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas?: The model gives Leon 10%, the draw 45% and Guadalajara Chivas 45%. Our tip is Guadalajara Chivas or draw.
What is the predicted score for Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas?: 1-1 is the most likely scoreline (11%), from expected goals of 1.2 and 1.7.
Will both teams score in Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas?: GG is rated 57% by the model.
When and where is Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas?: Monday 9 November, 03:10 WAT, Liga MX (apertura – 16), Estadio León.

Compare every market on the Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas odds page.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ only – bet responsibly.