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La Liga
Alaves AlavesHome
LLDLL
Friday, Oct 23, 2026 Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
Malaga MalagaAway
LDLLD

Alaves vs Malaga Prediction

The Alaves vs Malaga football prediction for October 23, 2026 in La Liga, Spain uses the newest available model signal to frame the matchup before kick-off. The current win probabilities are Alaves 45%, draw 45% and Malaga 10%. Expected goals are Alaves -2.5 and Malaga -1.5. Model advice: Double chance : Alaves or draw. Use the probability split as one layer of research, then check form, squad news, H2H trends, venue context and live market prices before making a match assessment.

Match PredictionConnected model prediction
Current
Alaves45%
Draw45%
Malaga10%
Model adviceDouble chance : Alaves or drawStrongest probability: 45%
Likely Score-2.5–-1.5Expected goals
Goals Market—When returned by feed
Winner SignalAlavesWin or draw
Double Chance1XOnly when supported

Key Match Insights

  • Alaves has the strongest current 1X2 model signal at 45%.
  • The connected prediction feed currently returns an expected-goals score of -2.5–-1.5.
  • Double chance : Alaves or draw

Model Comparison

Home vs away signal
Form33% / 67%
Attacking potential38% / 63%
Defensive potential61% / 39%
Poisson distribution93% / 7%
Head to head80% / 20%
Goals H2H73% / 27%
Overall signal63% / 37.2%

Team Form

Last 5 completed matches
Alaves
LLDLL
Celta Vigo1–2L
Atletico Madrid1–2L
Athletic Club0–0D
Valencia0–1L
Racing Santander1–2L
33% Form Rating 67%
Malaga
LDLLD
Real Sociedad2–5L
Espanyol1–1D
Getafe0–1L
Villarreal1–3L
Celta Vigo1–1D

Head to Head

Last 6 meetings
Alaves2–1Malaga
Malaga1–0Alaves
Malaga0–3Alaves
Alaves1–0Malaga
Malaga1–2Alaves
Alaves1–1Malaga

Top Prediction Signals for This Match

Strongest 1X2Alaves45%
Expected Score-2.5–-1.5Model goals
Goals Signal—Feed market
Double Chance1XIf supported
Prediction analysis

Alaves vs Malaga prediction analysis