Football prediction

Premier League Matchday 10

Manchester United vs Aston Villa Prediction

Sunday 8 November, 17:30 WAT: Manchester United welcome Aston Villa in the Premier League (matchday 10). Home win 40%, draw 29%, away win 31% according to our model, and the pick is Manchester United or draw (69%).

Manchester UnitedDDDLL

17:30Sun 8 Nov 2026 · WAT

Aston VillaWDWWD

Old Trafford, Manchester

Our prediction

Manchester United or draw69% probability · best odds 1.40

40%29%31%

Manchester UnitedDrawAston Villa

Most likely score: 0 - 1
Both teams to score: 62%
Expected goals: 0.9 – 1.7
Double chance: 1X 69% · 12 71% · X2 60%

Model advice: Double chance : Manchester United or draw

Form and team strength

Last 5 games	Manchester United	Aston Villa
Results	DDDLL	WDWWD
Goals scored per game	0.6	1.8
Goals conceded per game	1.6	1.2

Manchester UnitedAston Villa

21%

79%Form

25%

75%Attack

43%

57%Defence

51%

49%Poisson

71%

29%Head to head

67%

33%Goals

46%

54%Overall

Head-to-head

6Manchester United1Draws1Aston Villa

15 Mar 2026Manchester United3 - 1Aston VillaPremier League
21 Dec 2025Aston Villa2 - 1Manchester UnitedPremier League
25 May 2025Manchester United2 - 0Aston VillaPremier League
6 Oct 2024Aston Villa0 - 0Manchester UnitedPremier League
11 Feb 2024Aston Villa1 - 2Manchester UnitedPremier League
26 Dec 2023Manchester United3 - 2Aston VillaPremier League

Best odds (1X2)

Manchester United2.231xBetfair 44%

Draw3.941xBetfair 25%

Aston Villa3.30Bet365fair 31%

Compared across 6 bookmakers. Market margin 4.9%.

Compare all Manchester United vs Aston Villa odds

Model vs bookmakers

Outcome	Our model	Market (fair)	Edge
Manchester United	40%	44.1%	-4.1
Draw	29%	25.3%	+3.7
Aston Villa	31%	30.5%	+0.5

A positive edge means our model rates the outcome higher than the bookmakers’ margin-free price. It is a research signal, not a guarantee.

Premier League table position

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Form
10	Aston Villa	9	-3	12	DWWDW
17	Manchester United	9	-5	7	LLDDD

Full Premier League table and predictions

Prediction analysis

Manchester United vs Aston Villa preview, prediction and stats – 8 Nov 2026 WAT

This Premier League matchday 10 fixture is played on Sunday 8 November, 17:30 WAT at Old Trafford. Manchester United are 17th with 7 points from 9 games (goal difference -5); Aston Villa are 10th with 12 points from 9 (-3).

Manchester United and Aston Villa form

Over their last 5 matches Manchester United have managed 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats (DDDLL). Aston Villa have a mixed recent record of 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats (WDWWD) across their last 5. Over those games Manchester United averaged 0.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per match, Aston Villa 1.8 and 1.2.

What the numbers say

Manchester United are the model’s favourites at 40%, 9 points clear of Aston Villa, while the draw is rated 29%. Expected goals come out at 0.9 for Manchester United and 1.7 for Aston Villa, and the most likely single scoreline is 0-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals is rated 48% and both teams to score (GG) 48%. The clearest strengths in the team comparison: Aston Villa in attack (75-25), Aston Villa in defence (57-43), Aston Villa in form (79-21).

Head-to-head record

In the last 8 meetings Manchester United won 6, Aston Villa won 1 and 1 ended level, an average of 3.0 goals per game. Both teams scored in 5 of them and 5 went over 2.5 goals. The most recent meeting, on 15 Mar 2026, finished Manchester United 3-1 Aston Villa.

Manchester United vs Aston Villa odds

Across 6 bookmakers the best prices are 2.23 for Manchester United (1xBet), 3.94 for the draw (1xBet) and 3.30 for Aston Villa (Bet365). With the margin removed the market reads 44% / 25% / 31%. Model and market agree closely, so there is no obvious price edge on the match result. Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.65 and under at 2.46.

Our Manchester United vs Aston Villa prediction

The selection we are backing in Manchester United vs Aston Villa: Manchester United or draw (69% confidence, best price 1.40). Correct score suggestion: 0-1. Check confirmed line-ups an hour before kick-off – a late absence can change the picture.

Quick answers

Who will win Manchester United vs Aston Villa?: The model gives Manchester United 40%, the draw 29% and Aston Villa 31%. Our tip is Manchester United or draw.
What is the predicted score for Manchester United vs Aston Villa?: 0-1 is the most likely scoreline (13%), from expected goals of 0.9 and 1.7.
Will both teams score in Manchester United vs Aston Villa?: GG is rated 48% by the model and the best GG price is 1.50.
When and where is Manchester United vs Aston Villa?: Sunday 8 November, 17:30 WAT, Premier League (matchday 10), Old Trafford.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ only – bet responsibly.