Football prediction

Primeira Liga Matchday 11

Maritimo vs Estoril Prediction

Sunday 8 November, 16:30 WAT: Estoril welcome Maritimo in the Primeira Liga (matchday 11). Home win 45%, draw 34%, away win 21% according to our model, and the pick is Estoril or draw (79%).

EstorilLLLLL

16:30Sun 8 Nov 2026 · WAT

MaritimoLDLLL

Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Cascais

Our prediction

Estoril or draw79% probability · best odds 1.33

45%34%21%

EstorilDrawMaritimo

Most likely score: 1 - 1
Both teams to score: 55%
Expected goals: 1.6 – 1.5
Double chance: 1X 79% · 12 66% · X2 55%

Model advice: Double chance : Estoril or draw

Form and team strength

Last 5 games	Estoril	Maritimo
Results	LLLLL	LDLLL
Goals scored per game	0.6	0.6
Goals conceded per game	2.4	2.6

EstorilMaritimo

100%Form

50%

50%Attack

52%

48%Defence

49%

51%Poisson

71%

29%Head to head

67%

33%Goals

58%

42%Overall

Head-to-head

3Estoril4Draws1Maritimo

27 May 2023Estoril3 - 1MaritimoPrimeira Liga
22 Jan 2023Maritimo1 - 0EstorilPrimeira Liga
5 Feb 2022Maritimo0 - 0EstorilPrimeira Liga
27 Aug 2021Estoril2 - 1MaritimoPrimeira Liga
27 Jan 2021Maritimo1 - 3EstorilTaça de Portugal
7 Apr 2018Estoril1 - 1MaritimoPrimeira Liga

Best odds (1X2)

Estoril2.141xBetfair 45%

Draw3.581xBetfair 27%

Maritimo3.60Bet365fair 27%

Compared across 10 bookmakers. Market margin 6.8%.

Compare all Estoril vs Maritimo odds

Model vs bookmakers

Outcome	Our model	Market (fair)	Edge
Estoril	45%	45.2%	-0.2
Draw	34%	27.4%	+6.6
Maritimo	21%	27.4%	-6.4

A positive edge means our model rates the outcome higher than the bookmakers’ margin-free price. It is a research signal, not a guarantee.

Primeira Liga table position

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Form
14	Maritimo	10	-12	8	LLLDL
18	Estoril	10	-14	2	LLLLL

Full Primeira Liga table and predictions

Prediction analysis

Estoril vs Maritimo preview, prediction and stats – 8 Nov 2026 WAT

This Primeira Liga matchday 11 fixture is played on Sunday 8 November, 16:30 WAT at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota. Estoril are 18th with 2 points from 10 games (goal difference -14); Maritimo are 14th with 8 points from 10 (-12).

Estoril and Maritimo form

Estoril are struggling for results: 0 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats in the last 5 (LLLLL). Form is a concern for Maritimo, who have 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats from their last 5 (LDLLL). Over those games Estoril averaged 0.6 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per match, Maritimo 0.6 and 2.6.

What the numbers say

Estoril are the model’s favourites at 45%, 24 points clear of Maritimo, while the draw is rated 34%. Expected goals come out at 1.6 for Estoril and 1.5 for Maritimo, and the most likely single scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals is rated 60% and both teams to score (GG) 62%. The clearest strengths in the team comparison: Maritimo in form (100-0).

Head-to-head record

In the last 8 meetings Estoril won 3, Maritimo won 1 and 4 ended level, an average of 2.0 goals per game. Both teams scored in 5 of them and 3 went over 2.5 goals. The most recent meeting, on 27 May 2023, finished Estoril 3-1 Maritimo.

Estoril vs Maritimo odds

Across 10 bookmakers the best prices are 2.14 for Estoril (1xBet), 3.58 for the draw (1xBet) and 3.60 for Maritimo (Bet365). With the margin removed the market reads 45% / 27% / 27%. Our model is 6.6 points higher than the bookmakers on the draw – the biggest disagreement on this match. Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.93 and under at 1.96.

Our Estoril vs Maritimo prediction

The selection we are backing in Estoril vs Maritimo: Estoril or draw (79% confidence, best price 1.33). Correct score suggestion: 1-1. Check confirmed line-ups an hour before kick-off – a late absence can change the picture.

Quick answers

Who will win Estoril vs Maritimo?: The model gives Estoril 45%, the draw 34% and Maritimo 21%. Our tip is Estoril or draw.
What is the predicted score for Estoril vs Maritimo?: 1-1 is the most likely scoreline (11%), from expected goals of 1.6 and 1.5.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Maritimo?: GG is rated 62% by the model and the best GG price is 1.72.
When and where is Estoril vs Maritimo?: Sunday 8 November, 16:30 WAT, Primeira Liga (matchday 11), Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ only – bet responsibly.