Northern Ireland vs Ukraine Prediction

This UEFA Nations League league b – 5 fixture is played on Saturday 14 November, 20:45 WAT. Northern Ireland are 1st with 8 points from 4 games (goal difference +4); Ukraine are 3rd with 4 points from 4 (-3).

Northern Ireland and Ukraine form

Northern Ireland have a mixed recent record of 2 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats (WDWD) across their last 4. Over their last 4 matches Ukraine have managed 1 win, 1 draw and 2 defeats (WDLL). Over those games Northern Ireland averaged 1.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded per match, Ukraine 0.5 and 1.3.

What the numbers say

Northern Ireland are the model’s favourites at 44%, 26 points clear of Ukraine, while the draw is rated 38%. Expected goals come out at 1.2 for Northern Ireland and 0.3 for Ukraine, and the most likely single scoreline is 1-0 (28%). Over 2.5 goals is rated 17% and both teams to score (GG) 15%. The clearest strengths in the team comparison: Northern Ireland in attack (67-33), Northern Ireland in defence (100-0), Northern Ireland in form (67-33).

Head-to-head record

In the last 3 meetings Northern Ireland won 2, Ukraine won 1 and 0 ended level, an average of 2.0 goals per game. Both teams scored in 0 of them and 1 went over 2.5 goals. The most recent meeting, on 2 Oct 2026, finished Ukraine 0-3 Northern Ireland.

Northern Ireland vs Ukraine odds

Across 10 bookmakers the best prices are 2.39 for Northern Ireland (1xBet), 3.22 for the draw (1xBet) and 3.34 for Ukraine (Pinnacle). With the margin removed the market reads 40% / 31% / 30%. Our model is 7.5 points higher than the bookmakers on the draw – the biggest disagreement on this match. Over 2.5 goals is available at 2.44 and under at 1.62.

Our Northern Ireland vs Ukraine prediction

The selection we are backing in Northern Ireland vs Ukraine: Northern Ireland to win (44% confidence, best price 2.39). For a goals angle, the model leans towards under 3.5 goals. Correct score suggestion: 1-0. Check confirmed line-ups an hour before kick-off – a late absence can change the picture.

Quick answers

Who will win Northern Ireland vs Ukraine?

The model gives Northern Ireland 44%, the draw 38% and Ukraine 18%. Our tip is Northern Ireland to win.

What is the predicted score for Northern Ireland vs Ukraine?

1-0 is the most likely scoreline (28%), from expected goals of 1.2 and 0.3.

Will both teams score in Northern Ireland vs Ukraine?

GG is rated 15% by the model and the best GG price is 2.05.

When and where is Northern Ireland vs Ukraine?

Saturday 14 November, 20:45 WAT, UEFA Nations League (league b – 5).

Compare every market on the Northern Ireland vs Ukraine odds page.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ only – bet responsibly.