Football prediction

Primeira Liga Matchday 11

Benfica vs Estrela Prediction

Estrela vs Benfica kicks off on Sunday 8 November, 21:30 WAT in the Primeira Liga (matchday 11). The model gives Estrela 6%, the draw 29% and Benfica 65%, and the pick is Benfica to win (65%).

EstrelaDLLLL

21:30Sun 8 Nov 2026 · WAT

BenficaWLWWW

Estadio Jose Gomes, Amadora

Our prediction

Benfica to win65% probability · best odds 1.28

6%29%65%

EstrelaDrawBenfica

Most likely score: 0 - 1
Both teams to score: 52%
Expected goals: 0.9 – 1.9
Double chance: 1X 35% · 12 71% · X2 94%

Model advice: Winner : Benfica

Form and team strength

Last 5 games	Estrela	Benfica
Results	DLLLL	WLWWW
Goals scored per game	0.8	1.8
Goals conceded per game	2.0	1.0

EstrelaBenfica

92%Form

31%

69%Attack

33%

67%Defence

14%

86%Poisson

100%Head to head

11%

89%Goals

19%

81%Overall

Head-to-head

0Estrela0Draws8Benfica

25 Jan 2026Benfica4 - 0EstrelaPrimeira Liga
16 Aug 2025Estrela0 - 1BenficaPrimeira Liga
2 Feb 2025Estrela2 - 3BenficaPrimeira Liga
23 Nov 2024Benfica7 - 0EstrelaTaça de Portugal
24 Aug 2024Benfica1 - 0EstrelaPrimeira Liga
29 Jan 2024Estrela1 - 4BenficaPrimeira Liga

Best odds (1X2)

Estrela11.801xBetfair 9%

Draw6.741xBetfair 15%

Benfica1.28Betanofair 75%

Compared across 10 bookmakers. Market margin 7.2%.

Compare all Estrela vs Benfica odds

Model vs bookmakers

Outcome	Our model	Market (fair)	Edge
Estrela	6%	9.4%	-3.4
Draw	29%	15.4%	+13.6
Benfica	65%	75.2%	-10.2

A positive edge means our model rates the outcome higher than the bookmakers’ margin-free price. It is a research signal, not a guarantee.

Primeira Liga table position

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Form
2	Benfica	10	+19	25	WWWLW
12	Estrela	10	-4	10	LLLLD

Full Primeira Liga table and predictions

Prediction analysis

Estrela vs Benfica: our prediction for 8 Nov 2026 WAT

Sunday 8 November, 21:30 WAT is the date for this Primeira Liga matchday 11 meeting at Estadio Jose Gomes. Estrela are 12th with 10 points from 10 games (goal difference -4); Benfica are 2nd with 25 points from 10 (+19). The 15-point gap shows the difference in quality this season.

Estrela and Benfica form

Estrela are struggling for results: 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in the last 5 (DLLLL). Benfica are flying, with 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 games (WLWWW). Over those games Estrela averaged 0.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per match, Benfica 1.8 and 1.0.

What the numbers say

Benfica are the model’s favourites at 65%, 59 points clear of Estrela, while the draw is rated 29%. Expected goals come out at 0.9 for Estrela and 1.9 for Benfica, and the most likely single scoreline is 0-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals is rated 53% and both teams to score (GG) 50%. The clearest strengths in the team comparison: Benfica in attack (69-31), Benfica in defence (67-33), Benfica in form (92-8).

Head-to-head record

In the last 8 meetings Estrela won 0, Benfica won 8 and 0 ended level, an average of 3.8 goals per game. Both teams scored in 3 of them and 5 went over 2.5 goals. The most recent meeting, on 25 Jan 2026, finished Benfica 4-0 Estrela.

Estrela vs Benfica odds

Across 10 bookmakers the best prices are 11.80 for Estrela (1xBet), 6.74 for the draw (1xBet) and 1.28 for Benfica (Betano). With the margin removed the market reads 9% / 15% / 75%. Our model is 13.6 points higher than the bookmakers on the draw – the biggest disagreement on this match. Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.47 and under at 2.88.

Our Estrela vs Benfica prediction

Our pick for Estrela vs Benfica is Benfica to win, rated 65%, best price 1.28. Correct score suggestion: 0-1. Check confirmed line-ups an hour before kick-off – a late absence can change the picture.

Quick answers

Who will win Estrela vs Benfica?: The model gives Estrela 6%, the draw 29% and Benfica 65%. Our tip is Benfica to win.
What is the predicted score for Estrela vs Benfica?: 0-1 is the most likely scoreline (12%), from expected goals of 0.9 and 1.9.
Will both teams score in Estrela vs Benfica?: GG is rated 50% by the model and the best GG price is 1.83.
When and where is Estrela vs Benfica?: Sunday 8 November, 21:30 WAT, Primeira Liga (matchday 11), Estadio Jose Gomes.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ only – bet responsibly.