Football prediction

Primera División predictions Clausura - 14

Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo Prediction

Danubio host Liverpool Montevideo in the Primera División (clausura - 14) on Sunday 15 November, 20:30 WAT. Our model rates the match 17% / 34% / 49% (home / draw / away), and the pick is Liverpool Montevideo or draw (83%).

DanubioWLWLL

20:30Sun 15 Nov 2026 · WAT

Liverpool MontevideoWDWWW

Gardens of the Hippodrome, Montevideo

Our prediction

Liverpool Montevideo or draw83% probability · best odds 1.23

17%34%49%

DanubioDrawLiverpool Montevideo

Most likely score: 0 - 1
Both teams to score: 50%
Expected goals: 0.8 – 1.4
Double chance: 1X 51% · 12 66% · X2 83%

Model advice: Double chance : draw or Liverpool Montevideo

Form and team strength

Last 5 games	Danubio	Liverpool Montevideo
Results	WLWLL	WDWWW
Goals scored per game	1.0	1.6
Goals conceded per game	1.2	0.6

DanubioLiverpool Montevideo

32%

68%Form

38%

62%Attack

33%

67%Defence

35%

65%Poisson

62%

38%Head to head

50%

50%Goals

42%

58%Overall

Head-to-head

3Danubio3Draws2Liverpool Montevideo

2 May 2026Liverpool Montevideo3 - 0DanubioPrimera División
3 Aug 2025Liverpool Montevideo0 - 0DanubioPrimera División - Clausura
1 Feb 2025Danubio1 - 1Liverpool MontevideoPrimera División - Apertura
22 Sep 2024Danubio1 - 0Liverpool MontevideoPrimera División - Clausura
28 Jul 2024Danubio2 - 0Liverpool MontevideoPrimera División - Apertura
10 Mar 2024Liverpool Montevideo1 - 2DanubioPrimera División - Apertura

Best odds (1X2)

Danubio4.33Pinnaclefair 22%

Draw3.55Dafabetfair 27%

Liverpool Montevideo1.90Dafabetfair 50%

Compared across 10 bookmakers. Market margin 9.8%.

Compare all Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo odds

Model vs bookmakers

Outcome	Our model	Market (fair)	Edge
Danubio	17%	22.4%	-5.4
Draw	34%	27.3%	+6.7
Liverpool Montevideo	49%	50.3%	-1.3

A positive edge means our model rates the outcome higher than the bookmakers’ margin-free price. It is a research signal, not a guarantee.

Primera División table position

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Form
6	Liverpool Montevideo	35	+16	59	WWWDW
16	Danubio	35	-16	32	LLWLW
4	Liverpool Montevideo	72	+30	124	WWWDW
15	Danubio	72	-16	75	LLWLW
4	Liverpool Montevideo	7	0	9	DWLDW
8	Danubio	7	-4	4	DLDDD
9	Liverpool Montevideo	15	+2	20	LWDLW
11	Danubio	15	-4	18	LLWDD
1	Liverpool Montevideo	13	+14	30	WWWDW
16	Danubio	13	-8	10	LLWLW

Full Primera División table and predictions

Prediction analysis

Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo prediction and preview (15 Nov 2026 WAT)

Sunday 15 November, 20:30 WAT is the date for this Primera División clausura – 14 meeting at Gardens of the Hippodrome. Danubio are 16th with 10 points from 13 games (goal difference -8); Liverpool Montevideo are 1st with 30 points from 13 (+14). The 20-point gap shows the difference in quality this season.

Danubio and Liverpool Montevideo form

Form is a concern for Danubio, who have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats from their last 5 (WLWLL). Liverpool Montevideo arrive in strong form: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats from their last 5 (WDWWW). Over those games Danubio averaged 1.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match, Liverpool Montevideo 1.6 and 0.6.

What the numbers say

Liverpool Montevideo are the model’s favourites at 49%, 32 points clear of Danubio, while the draw is rated 34%. Expected goals come out at 0.8 for Danubio and 1.4 for Liverpool Montevideo, and the most likely single scoreline is 0-1 (16%). Over 2.5 goals is rated 38% and both teams to score (GG) 41%. The clearest strengths in the team comparison: Liverpool Montevideo in attack (62-38), Liverpool Montevideo in defence (67-33), Liverpool Montevideo in form (68-32).

Head-to-head record

In the last 8 meetings Danubio won 3, Liverpool Montevideo won 2 and 3 ended level, an average of 1.8 goals per game. Both teams scored in 3 of them and 2 went over 2.5 goals. The most recent meeting, on 2 May 2026, finished Liverpool Montevideo 3-0 Danubio.

Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo odds

Across 10 bookmakers the best prices are 4.33 for Danubio (Pinnacle), 3.55 for the draw (Dafabet) and 1.90 for Liverpool Montevideo (Dafabet). With the margin removed the market reads 22% / 27% / 50%. Our model is 6.7 points higher than the bookmakers on the draw – the biggest disagreement on this match. Over 2.5 goals is available at 2.10 and under at 1.78.

Our Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo prediction

Our pick for Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo is Liverpool Montevideo or draw, rated 83%, best price 1.23. Correct score suggestion: 0-1. Check confirmed line-ups an hour before kick-off – a late absence can change the picture.

Quick answers

Who will win Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo?: The model gives Danubio 17%, the draw 34% and Liverpool Montevideo 49%. Our tip is Liverpool Montevideo or draw.
What is the predicted score for Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo?: 0-1 is the most likely scoreline (16%), from expected goals of 0.8 and 1.4.
Will both teams score in Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo?: GG is rated 41% by the model and the best GG price is 1.91.
When and where is Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo?: Sunday 15 November, 20:30 WAT, Primera División (clausura – 14), Gardens of the Hippodrome.

Compare every market on the Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo odds page.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ only – bet responsibly.