Football prediction

FA Cup 1/128-finals

Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town Prediction

Saturday 7 November, 16:00 WAT: Milton Keynes Dons welcome Swindon Town in the FA Cup (1/128-finals). Home win 56%, draw 30%, away win 14% according to our model, and the pick is Milton Keynes Dons or draw (86%).

Milton Keynes Dons

16:00Sat 7 Nov 2026 · WAT

Swindon Town

Stadium MK, Milton Keynes

Our prediction

Milton Keynes Dons or draw86% probability · best odds 1.17

56%30%14%

Milton Keynes DonsDrawSwindon Town

Both teams to score: 55%
Double chance: 1X 86% · 12 70% · X2 44%

Model advice: Double chance : Milton Keynes Dons or draw

Form and team strength

Last 5 games	Milton Keynes Dons	Swindon Town
Results
Goals scored per game	0.0	0.0
Goals conceded per game	0.0	0.0

Milton Keynes DonsSwindon Town

0%Form

0%Attack

0%Defence

0%Poisson

71%

29%Head to head

50%

50%Goals

61%

40%Overall

Head-to-head

6Milton Keynes Dons1Draws1Swindon Town

14 Mar 2026Swindon Town1 - 2Milton Keynes DonsLeague Two
26 Dec 2025Milton Keynes Dons1 - 0Swindon TownLeague Two
11 Nov 2025Milton Keynes Dons0 - 4Swindon TownEFL Trophy
3 May 2025Swindon Town0 - 0Milton Keynes DonsLeague Two
9 Nov 2024Milton Keynes Dons3 - 1Swindon TownLeague Two
17 Feb 2024Swindon Town1 - 2Milton Keynes DonsLeague Two

Best odds (1X2)

Milton Keynes Dons1.53Betfairfair 63%

Draw4.81Pinnaclefair 21%

Swindon Town6.00Dafabetfair 16%

Compared across 10 bookmakers. Market margin 7.9%.

Compare all Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town odds

Model vs bookmakers

Outcome	Our model	Market (fair)	Edge
Milton Keynes Dons	56%	63.0%	-7.0
Draw	30%	20.6%	+9.4
Swindon Town	14%	16.3%	-2.3

A positive edge means our model rates the outcome higher than the bookmakers’ margin-free price. It is a research signal, not a guarantee.

Prediction analysis

Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town preview, prediction and stats – 7 Nov 2026 WAT

This FA Cup 1/128-finals fixture is played on Saturday 7 November, 16:00 WAT at Stadium MK.

What the numbers say

Milton Keynes Dons are the model’s favourites at 56%, 42 points clear of Swindon Town, while the draw is rated 30%.

Head-to-head record

In the last 8 meetings Milton Keynes Dons won 6, Swindon Town won 1 and 1 ended level, an average of 3.1 goals per game. Both teams scored in 4 of them and 6 went over 2.5 goals. The most recent meeting, on 14 Mar 2026, finished Swindon Town 1-2 Milton Keynes Dons.

Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town odds

Across 10 bookmakers the best prices are 1.53 for Milton Keynes Dons (Betfair), 4.81 for the draw (Pinnacle) and 6.00 for Swindon Town (Dafabet). With the margin removed the market reads 63% / 21% / 16%. Our model is 9.4 points higher than the bookmakers on the draw – the biggest disagreement on this match. Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.60 and under at 2.45.

Our Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town prediction

The selection we are backing in Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town: Milton Keynes Dons or draw (86% confidence, best price 1.17). Check confirmed line-ups an hour before kick-off – a late absence can change the picture.

Quick answers

Who will win Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town?: The model gives Milton Keynes Dons 56%, the draw 30% and Swindon Town 14%. Our tip is Milton Keynes Dons or draw.
When and where is Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town?: Saturday 7 November, 16:00 WAT, FA Cup (1/128-finals), Stadium MK.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ only – bet responsibly.