Football prediction

Liga MX predictions Apertura - 16

Tigres Uanl vs Cruz Azul Prediction

Tigres UANL host Cruz Azul in the Liga MX (apertura - 16) on Sunday 8 November, 02:00 WAT. Our model rates the match 23% / 34% / 43% (home / draw / away), and the pick is Cruz Azul or draw (77%).

Tigres UANLWDLDL

02:00Sun 8 Nov 2026 · WAT

Cruz AzulDWWWW

Estadio Universitario, Monterey

Our prediction

Cruz Azul or draw77% probability · best odds 1.38

23%34%43%

Tigres UANLDrawCruz Azul

Most likely score: 1 - 2
Both teams to score: 60%
Expected goals: 1.1 – 2.4
Double chance: 1X 57% · 12 66% · X2 77%

Model advice: Double chance : draw or Cruz Azul

Form and team strength

Last 5 games	Tigres UANL	Cruz Azul
Results	WDLDL	DWWWW
Goals scored per game	1.0	3.0
Goals conceded per game	1.8	1.2

Tigres UANLCruz Azul

28%

72%Form

25%

75%Attack

40%

60%Defence

46%

54%Poisson

25%

75%Head to head

40%

60%Goals

34%

66%Overall

Head-to-head

1Tigres UANL5Draws2Cruz Azul

15 Feb 2026Cruz Azul2 - 1Tigres UANLLiga MX
7 Dec 2025Tigres UANL1 - 1Cruz AzulLiga MX
4 Dec 2025Cruz Azul1 - 1Tigres UANLLiga MX
5 Oct 2025Tigres UANL1 - 1Cruz AzulLiga MX
2 May 2025Cruz Azul1 - 0Tigres UANLCONCACAF Champions League
24 Apr 2025Tigres UANL1 - 1Cruz AzulCONCACAF Champions League

Best odds (1X2)

Tigres UANL3.10Bet365fair 32%

Draw3.60Pinnaclefair 27%

Cruz Azul2.29Pinnaclefair 41%

Compared across 6 bookmakers. Market margin 8.0%.

Compare all Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul odds

Model vs bookmakers

Outcome	Our model	Market (fair)	Edge
Tigres UANL	23%	32.2%	-9.2
Draw	34%	26.7%	+7.3
Cruz Azul	43%	41.2%	+1.8

A positive edge means our model rates the outcome higher than the bookmakers’ margin-free price. It is a research signal, not a guarantee.

Liga MX table position

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Form
3	Cruz Azul	15	+10	29	WWWWD
15	Tigres UANL	15	-7	15	LDLDW

Full Liga MX table and predictions

Prediction analysis

Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul: our prediction for 8 Nov 2026 WAT

Sunday 8 November, 02:00 WAT is the date for this Liga MX apertura – 16 meeting at Estadio Universitario. Tigres UANL are 15th with 15 points from 15 games (goal difference -7); Cruz Azul are 3rd with 29 points from 15 (+10). The 14-point gap shows the difference in quality this season.

Tigres UANL and Cruz Azul form

Tigres UANL have a mixed recent record of 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats (WDLDL) across their last 5. Cruz Azul are flying, with 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 games (DWWWW). Over those games Tigres UANL averaged 1.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per match, Cruz Azul 3.0 and 1.2.

What the numbers say

Cruz Azul are the model’s favourites at 43%, 20 points clear of Tigres UANL, while the draw is rated 34%. Expected goals come out at 1.1 for Tigres UANL and 2.4 for Cruz Azul, and the most likely single scoreline is 1-2 (10%). Over 2.5 goals is rated 67% and both teams to score (GG) 60%. The clearest strengths in the team comparison: Cruz Azul in attack (75-25), Cruz Azul in defence (60-40), Cruz Azul in form (72-28).

Head-to-head record

In the last 8 meetings Tigres UANL won 1, Cruz Azul won 2 and 5 ended level, an average of 2.1 goals per game. Both teams scored in 7 of them and 2 went over 2.5 goals. The most recent meeting, on 15 Feb 2026, finished Cruz Azul 2-1 Tigres UANL.

Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul odds

Across 6 bookmakers the best prices are 3.10 for Tigres UANL (Bet365), 3.60 for the draw (Pinnacle) and 2.29 for Cruz Azul (Pinnacle). With the margin removed the market reads 32% / 27% / 41%. Our model is 7.3 points higher than the bookmakers on the draw – the biggest disagreement on this match. Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.68 and under at 2.22.

Our Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul prediction

Our pick for Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul is Cruz Azul or draw, rated 77%, best price 1.38. Correct score suggestion: 1-2. Check confirmed line-ups an hour before kick-off – a late absence can change the picture.

Quick answers

Who will win Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul?: The model gives Tigres UANL 23%, the draw 34% and Cruz Azul 43%. Our tip is Cruz Azul or draw.
What is the predicted score for Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul?: 1-2 is the most likely scoreline (10%), from expected goals of 1.1 and 2.4.
Will both teams score in Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul?: GG is rated 60% by the model and the best GG price is 1.57.
When and where is Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul?: Sunday 8 November, 02:00 WAT, Liga MX (apertura – 16), Estadio Universitario.

Compare every market on the Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul odds page.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ only – bet responsibly.