Football prediction

Liga Profesional Argentina Clausura - 16

Velez Sarsfield vs Union Santa Fe Prediction

Friday 6 November, 23:15 WAT: Union Santa Fe welcome Velez Sarsfield in the Liga Profesional Argentina (clausura - 16). Home win 25%, draw 36%, away win 39% according to our model, and the pick is Velez Sarsfield or draw (75%).

Union Santa FeLLDWD

23:15Fri 6 Nov 2026 · WAT

Velez SarsfieldDLWWD

Estadio 15 de Abril, Santa Fe de la Vera Cruz

Our prediction

Velez Sarsfield or draw75% probability · best odds 1.52

25%36%39%

Union Santa FeDrawVelez Sarsfield

Most likely score: 1 - 1
Both teams to score: 52%
Expected goals: 1.1 – 1.8
Double chance: 1X 61% · 12 64% · X2 75%

Model advice: Double chance : draw or Velez Sarsfield

Form and team strength

Last 5 games	Union Santa Fe	Velez Sarsfield
Results	LLDWD	DLWWD
Goals scored per game	1.0	2.0
Goals conceded per game	1.6	1.2

Union Santa FeVelez Sarsfield

38%

62%Form

33%

67%Attack

43%

57%Defence

44%

56%Poisson

62%

38%Head to head

42%

58%Goals

44%

56%Overall

Head-to-head

2Union Santa Fe2Draws3Velez Sarsfield

27 Apr 2026Velez Sarsfield2 - 2Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
7 Dec 2024Union Santa Fe1 - 0Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
24 Jul 2023Velez Sarsfield0 - 0Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
6 Aug 2022Union Santa Fe2 - 1Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
6 Sep 2021Velez Sarsfield4 - 0Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
4 Apr 2021Velez Sarsfield4 - 1Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina

Best odds (1X2)

Union Santa Fe2.70Bet365fair 36%

Draw3.30Betanofair 30%

Velez Sarsfield2.80Bet365fair 35%

Compared across 10 bookmakers. Market margin 7.0%.

Compare all Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield odds

Model vs bookmakers

Outcome	Our model	Market (fair)	Edge
Union Santa Fe	25%	35.7%	-10.7
Draw	36%	29.6%	+6.4
Velez Sarsfield	39%	34.7%	+4.3

A positive edge means our model rates the outcome higher than the bookmakers’ margin-free price. It is a research signal, not a guarantee.

Liga Profesional Argentina table position

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Form
3	Velez Sarsfield	16	+6	28	DWWLD
8	Union Santa Fe	16	+4	21	DWDLL
3	Velez Sarsfield	15	+10	28	DWWLD
10	Union Santa Fe	15	-2	18	DWDLL

Full Liga Profesional Argentina table and predictions

Prediction analysis

Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield prediction and preview (6 Nov 2026 WAT)

This Liga Profesional Argentina clausura – 16 fixture is played on Friday 6 November, 23:15 WAT at Estadio 15 de Abril. Union Santa Fe are 10th with 18 points from 15 games (goal difference -2); Velez Sarsfield are 3rd with 28 points from 15 (+10). The 10-point gap shows the difference in quality this season.

Union Santa Fe and Velez Sarsfield form

Over their last 5 matches Union Santa Fe have managed 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats (LLDWD). Velez Sarsfield have a mixed recent record of 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat (DLWWD) across their last 5. Over those games Union Santa Fe averaged 1.0 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per match, Velez Sarsfield 2.0 and 1.2.

What the numbers say

Velez Sarsfield are the model’s favourites at 39%, 14 points clear of Union Santa Fe, while the draw is rated 36%. Expected goals come out at 1.1 for Union Santa Fe and 1.8 for Velez Sarsfield, and the most likely single scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals is rated 55% and both teams to score (GG) 56%. The clearest strengths in the team comparison: Velez Sarsfield in attack (67-33), Velez Sarsfield in defence (57-43), Velez Sarsfield in form (62-38).

Head-to-head record

In the last 7 meetings Union Santa Fe won 2, Velez Sarsfield won 3 and 2 ended level, an average of 2.9 goals per game. Both teams scored in 3 of them and 5 went over 2.5 goals. The most recent meeting, on 27 Apr 2026, finished Velez Sarsfield 2-2 Union Santa Fe.

Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield odds

Across 10 bookmakers the best prices are 2.70 for Union Santa Fe (Bet365), 3.30 for the draw (Betano) and 2.80 for Velez Sarsfield (Bet365). With the margin removed the market reads 36% / 30% / 35%. Our model is 6.4 points higher than the bookmakers on the draw – the biggest disagreement on this match. Over 2.5 goals is available at 2.10 and under at 1.78.

Our Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield prediction

The selection we are backing in Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield: Velez Sarsfield or draw (75% confidence, best price 1.52). Correct score suggestion: 1-1. Check confirmed line-ups an hour before kick-off – a late absence can change the picture.

Quick answers

Who will win Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield?: The model gives Union Santa Fe 25%, the draw 36% and Velez Sarsfield 39%. Our tip is Velez Sarsfield or draw.
What is the predicted score for Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield?: 1-1 is the most likely scoreline (11%), from expected goals of 1.1 and 1.8.
Will both teams score in Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield?: GG is rated 56% by the model and the best GG price is 1.80.
When and where is Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield?: Friday 6 November, 23:15 WAT, Liga Profesional Argentina (clausura – 16), Estadio 15 de Abril.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ only – bet responsibly.