Football prediction

Primera División predictions Clausura - 17

Atletico Grau vs Ucv Moquegua Prediction

Monday 16 November, 21:15 WAT: UCV Moquegua welcome Atletico Grau in the Primera División (clausura - 17). Home win 41%, draw 32%, away win 27% according to our model, and the pick is Atletico Grau or draw (59%).

UCV MoqueguaWLLDD

21:15Mon 16 Nov 2026 · WAT

Atletico GrauLDLLW

Estadio 25 de Noviembre, Moquegua

Our prediction

Atletico Grau or draw59% probability · best odds 2.52

41%32%27%

UCV MoqueguaDrawAtletico Grau

Most likely score: 1 - 1
Both teams to score: 47%
Expected goals: 1.3 – 1.1
Double chance: 1X 73% · 12 68% · X2 59%

Model advice: Double chance : draw or Atletico Grau

Form and team strength

Last 5 games	UCV Moquegua	Atletico Grau
Results	WLLDD	LDLLW
Goals scored per game	0.6	1.2
Goals conceded per game	1.0	2.0

UCV MoqueguaAtletico Grau

56%

44%Form

33%

67%Attack

67%

33%Defence

58%

42%Poisson

100%Head to head

100%Goals

54%

47%Overall

Head-to-head

0UCV Moquegua0Draws1Atletico Grau

29 May 2026Atletico Grau1 - 0UCV MoqueguaPrimera División

Best odds (1X2)

UCV Moquegua1.52Dafabetfair 62%

Draw4.20Dafabetfair 23%

Atletico Grau6.541xBetfair 15%

Compared across 9 bookmakers. Market margin 9.4%.

Compare all UCV Moquegua vs Atletico Grau odds

Model vs bookmakers

Outcome	Our model	Market (fair)	Edge
UCV Moquegua	41%	61.7%	-20.7
Draw	32%	23.4%	+8.6
Atletico Grau	27%	14.8%	+12.2

A positive edge means our model rates the outcome higher than the bookmakers’ margin-free price. It is a research signal, not a guarantee.

Primera División table position

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Form
14	Atletico Grau	33	-9	37	WLLDL
16	UCV Moquegua	33	-21	30	DDLLW
14	UCV Moquegua	17	-7	18	LDLDL
16	Atletico Grau	17	-6	16	WLWLL
11	Atletico Grau	16	-3	21	WLLDL
17	UCV Moquegua	16	-14	12	DDLLW

Full Primera División table and predictions

Prediction analysis

UCV Moquegua vs Atletico Grau preview, prediction and stats – 16 Nov 2026 WAT

Monday 16 November, 21:15 WAT is the date for this Primera División clausura – 17 meeting at Estadio 25 de Noviembre. UCV Moquegua are 17th with 12 points from 16 games (goal difference -14); Atletico Grau are 11th with 21 points from 16 (-3).

UCV Moquegua and Atletico Grau form

UCV Moquegua have a mixed recent record of 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats (WLLDD) across their last 5. Form is a concern for Atletico Grau, who have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 (LDLLW). Over those games UCV Moquegua averaged 0.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match, Atletico Grau 1.2 and 2.0.

What the numbers say

UCV Moquegua are the model’s favourites at 41%, 14 points clear of Atletico Grau, while the draw is rated 32%. Expected goals come out at 1.3 for UCV Moquegua and 1.1 for Atletico Grau, and the most likely single scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals is rated 43% and both teams to score (GG) 48%. The clearest strengths in the team comparison: Atletico Grau in attack (67-33), UCV Moquegua in defence (67-33), UCV Moquegua in form (56-44).

UCV Moquegua vs Atletico Grau odds

Across 9 bookmakers the best prices are 1.52 for UCV Moquegua (Dafabet), 4.20 for the draw (Dafabet) and 6.54 for Atletico Grau (1xBet). With the margin removed the market reads 62% / 23% / 15%. Our model is 12.2 points higher than the bookmakers on Atletico Grau – the biggest disagreement on this match. Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.95 and under at 1.87.

Our UCV Moquegua vs Atletico Grau prediction

Our pick for UCV Moquegua vs Atletico Grau is Atletico Grau or draw, rated 59%, best price 2.52. Correct score suggestion: 1-1. Check confirmed line-ups an hour before kick-off – a late absence can change the picture.

Quick answers

Who will win UCV Moquegua vs Atletico Grau?: The model gives UCV Moquegua 41%, the draw 32% and Atletico Grau 27%. Our tip is Atletico Grau or draw.
What is the predicted score for UCV Moquegua vs Atletico Grau?: 1-1 is the most likely scoreline (13%), from expected goals of 1.3 and 1.1.
Will both teams score in UCV Moquegua vs Atletico Grau?: GG is rated 48% by the model and the best GG price is 2.02.
When and where is UCV Moquegua vs Atletico Grau?: Monday 16 November, 21:15 WAT, Primera División (clausura – 17), Estadio 25 de Noviembre.

Compare every market on the UCV Moquegua vs Atletico Grau odds page.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ only – bet responsibly.

Prediction history

Recent prediction snapshots

May 29, 2026 · Primera División10% / 45% / 45% · 1–0