Football prediction

Championship Matchday 15

Cardiff vs Burnley Prediction

Cardiff vs Burnley kicks off on Saturday 7 November, 16:00 WAT in the Championship (matchday 15). The model gives Cardiff 44%, the draw 33% and Burnley 23%, and the pick is Cardiff to win (44%).

CardiffWDWLD

16:00Sat 7 Nov 2026 · WAT

BurnleyDLLDD

Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff

Our prediction

Cardiff to win44% probability · best odds 2.18

44%33%23%

CardiffDrawBurnley

Most likely score: 1 - 1
Goals: Over 1.5 goals
Both teams to score: 65%
Expected goals: 2.0 – 1.4
Double chance: 1X 77% · 12 67% · X2 56%

Model advice: Combo Double chance : Cardiff or draw and +1.5 goals

Form and team strength

Last 5 games	Cardiff	Burnley
Results	WDWLD	DLLDD
Goals scored per game	2.2	1.0
Goals conceded per game	1.8	1.8

CardiffBurnley

73%

27%Form

69%

31%Attack

50%

50%Defence

69%

31%Poisson

29%

71%Head to head

25%

75%Goals

53%

48%Overall

Head-to-head

1Cardiff2Draws5Burnley

23 Sep 2025Burnley1 - 2CardiffLeague Cup
4 Mar 2025Cardiff1 - 2BurnleyChampionship
17 Aug 2024Burnley5 - 0CardiffChampionship
8 May 2023Burnley3 - 0CardiffChampionship
1 Oct 2022Cardiff1 - 1BurnleyChampionship
13 Apr 2019Burnley2 - 0CardiffPremier League

Best odds (1X2)

Cardiff2.18Betanofair 44%

Draw3.90Betfairfair 25%

Burnley3.20Betfairfair 31%

Compared across 10 bookmakers. Market margin 6.9%.

Compare all Cardiff vs Burnley odds

Model vs bookmakers

Outcome	Our model	Market (fair)	Edge
Cardiff	44%	43.9%	+0.1
Draw	33%	25.3%	+7.7
Burnley	23%	30.8%	-7.8

A positive edge means our model rates the outcome higher than the bookmakers’ margin-free price. It is a research signal, not a guarantee.

Championship table position

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Form
18	Cardiff	14	-1	15	DLWDW
22	Burnley	14	-8	10	DDLLD

Full Championship table and predictions

Prediction analysis

Cardiff vs Burnley prediction and preview (7 Nov 2026 WAT)

Saturday 7 November, 16:00 WAT is the date for this Championship matchday 15 meeting at Cardiff City Stadium. Cardiff are 18th with 15 points from 14 games (goal difference -1); Burnley are 22nd with 10 points from 14 (-8).

Cardiff and Burnley form

Cardiff have a mixed recent record of 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat (WDWLD) across their last 5. Over their last 5 matches Burnley have managed 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats (DLLDD). Over those games Cardiff averaged 2.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per match, Burnley 1.0 and 1.8.

What the numbers say

Cardiff are the model’s favourites at 44%, 21 points clear of Burnley, while the draw is rated 33%. Expected goals come out at 2.0 for Cardiff and 1.4 for Burnley, and the most likely single scoreline is 1-1 (9%). Over 2.5 goals is rated 66% and both teams to score (GG) 65%. The clearest strengths in the team comparison: Cardiff in attack (69-31), Cardiff in form (73-27).

Head-to-head record

In the last 8 meetings Cardiff won 1, Burnley won 5 and 2 ended level, an average of 2.6 goals per game. Both teams scored in 4 of them and 5 went over 2.5 goals. The most recent meeting, on 23 Sep 2025, finished Burnley 1-2 Cardiff.

Cardiff vs Burnley odds

Across 10 bookmakers the best prices are 2.18 for Cardiff (Betano), 3.90 for the draw (Betfair) and 3.20 for Burnley (Betfair). With the margin removed the market reads 44% / 25% / 31%. Our model is 7.7 points higher than the bookmakers on the draw – the biggest disagreement on this match. Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.55 and under at 2.58.

Our Cardiff vs Burnley prediction

Our pick for Cardiff vs Burnley is Cardiff to win, rated 44%, best price 2.18. For a goals angle, the model leans towards over 1.5 goals. Correct score suggestion: 1-1. Check confirmed line-ups an hour before kick-off – a late absence can change the picture.

Quick answers

Who will win Cardiff vs Burnley?: The model gives Cardiff 44%, the draw 33% and Burnley 23%. Our tip is Cardiff to win.
What is the predicted score for Cardiff vs Burnley?: 1-1 is the most likely scoreline (9%), from expected goals of 2.0 and 1.4.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Burnley?: GG is rated 65% by the model and the best GG price is 1.47.
When and where is Cardiff vs Burnley?: Saturday 7 November, 16:00 WAT, Championship (matchday 15), Cardiff City Stadium.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ only – bet responsibly.