Football prediction

Primera Nacional predictions Round of 16

Ferro Carril Oeste vs Gimnasia Y Tiro Prediction

Ferro Carril Oeste host Gimnasia Y Tiro in the Primera Nacional (round of 16) on Monday 16 November, 00:30 WAT. Our model rates the match 53% / 34% / 13% (home / draw / away), and the pick is Ferro Carril Oeste or draw (87%).

Ferro Carril OesteLDWLD

00:30Mon 16 Nov 2026 · WAT

Gimnasia Y TiroLDWLL

Estadio Arquitecto Ricardo Etcheverry, Buenos Aires

Our prediction

Ferro Carril Oeste or draw87% probability · best odds 1.12

53%34%13%

Ferro Carril OesteDrawGimnasia Y Tiro

Most likely score: 0 - 1
Both teams to score: 36%
Expected goals: 1.0 – 1.1
Double chance: 1X 87% · 12 66% · X2 47%

Model advice: Double chance : Ferro Carril Oeste or draw

Form and team strength

Last 5 games	Ferro Carril Oeste	Gimnasia Y Tiro
Results	LDWLD	LDWLL
Goals scored per game	0.4	1.0
Goals conceded per game	1.2	1.6

Ferro Carril OesteGimnasia Y Tiro

56%

44%Form

29%

71%Attack

57%

43%Defence

49%

51%Poisson

80%

20%Head to head

67%

33%Goals

56%

44%Overall

Head-to-head

1Ferro Carril Oeste1Draws0Gimnasia Y Tiro

5 Jul 2025Ferro Carril Oeste0 - 0Gimnasia Y TiroPrimera Nacional
2 Mar 2025Gimnasia Y Tiro1 - 2Ferro Carril OestePrimera Nacional

Best odds (1X2)

Ferro Carril Oeste1.60Betanofair 59%

Draw3.61Pinnaclefair 27%

Gimnasia Y Tiro7.42Pinnaclefair 14%

Compared across 10 bookmakers. Market margin 9.2%.

Compare all Ferro Carril Oeste vs Gimnasia Y Tiro odds

Model vs bookmakers

Outcome	Our model	Market (fair)	Edge
Ferro Carril Oeste	53%	59.1%	-6.1
Draw	34%	26.9%	+7.1
Gimnasia Y Tiro	13%	14.1%	-1.1

A positive edge means our model rates the outcome higher than the bookmakers’ margin-free price. It is a research signal, not a guarantee.

Primera Nacional table position

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Form
2	Ferro Carril Oeste	36	+7	66	DLWDL
8	Gimnasia Y Tiro	36	+2	52	LLWDL

Full Primera Nacional table and predictions

Prediction analysis

Ferro Carril Oeste vs Gimnasia Y Tiro: our prediction for 16 Nov 2026 WAT

Monday 16 November, 00:30 WAT is the date for this Primera Nacional round of 16 meeting at Estadio Arquitecto Ricardo Etcheverry. Ferro Carril Oeste are 2nd with 66 points from 36 games (goal difference +7); Gimnasia Y Tiro are 8th with 52 points from 36 (+2). The 14-point gap shows the difference in quality this season.

Ferro Carril Oeste and Gimnasia Y Tiro form

Over their last 5 matches Ferro Carril Oeste have managed 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats (LDWLD). Gimnasia Y Tiro are struggling for results: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in the last 5 (LDWLL). Over those games Ferro Carril Oeste averaged 0.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match, Gimnasia Y Tiro 1.0 and 1.6.

What the numbers say

Ferro Carril Oeste are the model’s favourites at 53%, 40 points clear of Gimnasia Y Tiro, while the draw is rated 34%. Expected goals come out at 1.0 for Ferro Carril Oeste and 1.1 for Gimnasia Y Tiro, and the most likely single scoreline is 0-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals is rated 35% and both teams to score (GG) 42%. The clearest strengths in the team comparison: Gimnasia Y Tiro in attack (71-29), Ferro Carril Oeste in defence (57-43), Ferro Carril Oeste in form (56-44).

Head-to-head record

In the last 2 meetings Ferro Carril Oeste won 1, Gimnasia Y Tiro won 0 and 1 ended level, an average of 1.5 goals per game. Both teams scored in 1 of them and 1 went over 2.5 goals. The most recent meeting, on 5 Jul 2025, finished Ferro Carril Oeste 0-0 Gimnasia Y Tiro.

Ferro Carril Oeste vs Gimnasia Y Tiro odds

Across 10 bookmakers the best prices are 1.60 for Ferro Carril Oeste (Betano), 3.61 for the draw (Pinnacle) and 7.42 for Gimnasia Y Tiro (Pinnacle). With the margin removed the market reads 59% / 27% / 14%. Our model is 7.1 points higher than the bookmakers on the draw – the biggest disagreement on this match. Over 2.5 goals is available at 2.70 and under at 1.47.

Our Ferro Carril Oeste vs Gimnasia Y Tiro prediction

Our pick for Ferro Carril Oeste vs Gimnasia Y Tiro is Ferro Carril Oeste or draw, rated 87%, best price 1.12. Correct score suggestion: 0-1. Check confirmed line-ups an hour before kick-off – a late absence can change the picture.

Quick answers

Who will win Ferro Carril Oeste vs Gimnasia Y Tiro?: The model gives Ferro Carril Oeste 53%, the draw 34% and Gimnasia Y Tiro 13%. Our tip is Ferro Carril Oeste or draw.
What is the predicted score for Ferro Carril Oeste vs Gimnasia Y Tiro?: 0-1 is the most likely scoreline (13%), from expected goals of 1.0 and 1.1.
Will both teams score in Ferro Carril Oeste vs Gimnasia Y Tiro?: GG is rated 42% by the model and the best GG price is 2.80.
When and where is Ferro Carril Oeste vs Gimnasia Y Tiro?: Monday 16 November, 00:30 WAT, Primera Nacional (round of 16), Estadio Arquitecto Ricardo Etcheverry.

Compare every market on the Ferro Carril Oeste vs Gimnasia Y Tiro odds page.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ only – bet responsibly.