Football prediction

Serie A Matchday 11

Lazio vs Napoli Prediction

Napoli host Lazio in the Serie A (matchday 11) on Sunday 8 November, 12:30 WAT. Our model rates the match 29% / 34% / 37% (home / draw / away), and the pick is Lazio or draw (71%).

NapoliWLDWL

12:30Sun 8 Nov 2026 · WAT

LazioWWWWW

Maradona Stadium, Naples

Our prediction

Lazio or draw71% probability · best odds 1.68

29%34%37%

NapoliDrawLazio

Most likely score: 1 - 2
Both teams to score: 58%
Expected goals: 1.5 – 2.3
Double chance: 1X 63% · 12 66% · X2 71%

Model advice: Double chance : draw or Lazio

Form and team strength

Last 5 games	Napoli	Lazio
Results	WLDWL	WWWWW
Goals scored per game	2.0	3.2
Goals conceded per game	1.4	1.0

NapoliLazio

32%

68%Form

38%

62%Attack

42%

58%Defence

25%

75%Poisson

29%

71%Head to head

38%

62%Goals

34%

66%Overall

Head-to-head

1Napoli2Draws5Lazio

18 Apr 2026Napoli0 - 2LazioSerie A
4 Jan 2026Lazio0 - 2NapoliSerie A
15 Feb 2025Lazio2 - 2NapoliSerie A
8 Dec 2024Napoli0 - 1LazioSerie A
5 Dec 2024Lazio3 - 1NapoliCoppa Italia
28 Jan 2024Lazio0 - 0NapoliSerie A

Best odds (1X2)

Napoli2.36Pinnaclefair 42%

Draw3.721xBetfair 27%

Lazio3.151xBetfair 32%

Compared across 6 bookmakers. Market margin 5.0%.

Compare all Napoli vs Lazio odds

Model vs bookmakers

Outcome	Our model	Market (fair)	Edge
Napoli	29%	41.8%	-12.8
Draw	34%	26.5%	+7.5
Lazio	37%	31.7%	+5.3

A positive edge means our model rates the outcome higher than the bookmakers’ margin-free price. It is a research signal, not a guarantee.

Serie A table position

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lazio	10	+16	28	WWWWW
8	Napoli	10	+4	14	LWDLW

Full Serie A table and predictions

Prediction analysis

Napoli vs Lazio preview, prediction and stats – 8 Nov 2026 WAT

This Serie A matchday 11 fixture is played on Sunday 8 November, 12:30 WAT at Maradona Stadium. Napoli are 8th with 14 points from 10 games (goal difference +4); Lazio are 1st with 28 points from 10 (+16). The 14-point gap shows the difference in quality this season.

Napoli and Lazio form

Napoli have a mixed recent record of 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats (WLDWL) across their last 5. Lazio are flying, with 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 games (WWWWW). Over those games Napoli averaged 2.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match, Lazio 3.2 and 1.0.

What the numbers say

The model sees little between the teams: Napoli 29%, Lazio 37%, with 34% on the draw. Expected goals come out at 1.5 for Napoli and 2.3 for Lazio, and the most likely single scoreline is 1-2 (9%). Over 2.5 goals is rated 72% and both teams to score (GG) 69%. The clearest strengths in the team comparison: Lazio in attack (62-38), Lazio in defence (58-42), Lazio in form (68-32).

Head-to-head record

In the last 8 meetings Napoli won 1, Lazio won 5 and 2 ended level, an average of 2.1 goals per game. Both teams scored in 3 of them and 3 went over 2.5 goals. The most recent meeting, on 18 Apr 2026, finished Napoli 0-2 Lazio.

Napoli vs Lazio odds

Across 6 bookmakers the best prices are 2.36 for Napoli (Pinnacle), 3.72 for the draw (1xBet) and 3.15 for Lazio (1xBet). With the margin removed the market reads 42% / 27% / 32%. Our model is 7.5 points higher than the bookmakers on the draw – the biggest disagreement on this match. Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.81 and under at 2.16.

Our Napoli vs Lazio prediction

The selection we are backing in Napoli vs Lazio: Lazio or draw (71% confidence, best price 1.68). Correct score suggestion: 1-2. Check confirmed line-ups an hour before kick-off – a late absence can change the picture.

Quick answers

Who will win Napoli vs Lazio?: The model gives Napoli 29%, the draw 34% and Lazio 37%. Our tip is Lazio or draw.
What is the predicted score for Napoli vs Lazio?: 1-2 is the most likely scoreline (9%), from expected goals of 1.5 and 2.3.
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Lazio?: GG is rated 69% by the model and the best GG price is 1.62.
When and where is Napoli vs Lazio?: Sunday 8 November, 12:30 WAT, Serie A (matchday 11), Maradona Stadium.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ only – bet responsibly.