Football prediction

USL Championship predictions Quarter-finals

Louisville City vs Miami Fc Prediction

Sunday 8 November, 01:00 WAT: Louisville City welcome Miami FC in the USL Championship (quarter-finals). Home win 57%, draw 30%, away win 13% according to our model, and the pick is Louisville City or draw (87%).

Louisville CityWWWDW

01:00Sun 8 Nov 2026 · WAT

Miami FCWWLLD

Lynn Family Stadium

Our prediction

Louisville City or draw87% probability · best odds 1.13

57%30%13%

Louisville CityDrawMiami FC

Most likely score: 1 - 0
Both teams to score: 59%
Expected goals: 1.6 – 0.9
Double chance: 1X 87% · 12 70% · X2 43%

Model advice: Double chance : Louisville City or draw

Form and team strength

Last 5 games	Louisville City	Miami FC
Results	WWWDW	WWLLD
Goals scored per game	1.8	1.6
Goals conceded per game	0.2	1.4

Louisville CityMiami FC

65%

35%Form

53%

47%Attack

88%

13%Defence

63%

37%Poisson

80%

20%Head to head

68%

32%Goals

70%

31%Overall

Head-to-head

6Louisville City0Draws2Miami FC

23 May 2026Miami FC4 - 3Louisville CityUSL Championship
14 Mar 2026Louisville City4 - 1Miami FCUSL Championship
11 Oct 2025Louisville City1 - 0Miami FCUSL Championship
16 Aug 2025Miami FC2 - 4Louisville CityUSL Championship
2 Oct 2024Louisville City3 - 0Miami FCUSL Championship
1 Jun 2024Miami FC1 - 2Louisville CityUSL Championship

Best odds (1X2)

Louisville City1.45Betanofair 65%

Draw5.08Pinnaclefair 20%

Miami FC6.00Bet365fair 16%

Compared across 8 bookmakers. Market margin 9.9%.

Compare all Louisville City vs Miami FC odds

Model vs bookmakers

Outcome	Our model	Market (fair)	Edge
Louisville City	57%	64.5%	-7.5
Draw	30%	19.7%	+10.3
Miami FC	13%	15.8%	-2.8

A positive edge means our model rates the outcome higher than the bookmakers’ margin-free price. It is a research signal, not a guarantee.

USL Championship table position

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Form
4	Louisville City	30	+8	47	WDWWW
8	Miami FC	30	-10	36	WLLWW

Full USL Championship table and predictions

Prediction analysis

Louisville City vs Miami FC preview, prediction and stats – 8 Nov 2026 WAT

This USL Championship quarter-finals fixture is played on Sunday 8 November, 01:00 WAT at Lynn Family Stadium. Louisville City are 4th with 47 points from 30 games (goal difference +8); Miami FC are 8th with 36 points from 30 (-10). The 11-point gap shows the difference in quality this season.

Louisville City and Miami FC form

Louisville City arrive in strong form: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats from their last 5 (WWWDW). Over their last 5 matches Miami FC have managed 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats (WWLLD). Over those games Louisville City averaged 1.8 goals scored and 0.2 conceded per match, Miami FC 1.6 and 1.4.

What the numbers say

Louisville City are the model’s favourites at 57%, 44 points clear of Miami FC, while the draw is rated 30%. Expected goals come out at 1.6 for Louisville City and 0.9 for Miami FC, and the most likely single scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Over 2.5 goals is rated 45% and both teams to score (GG) 47%. The clearest strengths in the team comparison: Louisville City in defence (88-13), Louisville City in form (65-35).

Head-to-head record

In the last 8 meetings Louisville City won 6, Miami FC won 2 and 0 ended level, an average of 4.5 goals per game. Both teams scored in 6 of them and 7 went over 2.5 goals. The most recent meeting, on 23 May 2026, finished Miami FC 4-3 Louisville City.

Louisville City vs Miami FC odds

Across 8 bookmakers the best prices are 1.45 for Louisville City (Betano), 5.08 for the draw (Pinnacle) and 6.00 for Miami FC (Bet365). With the margin removed the market reads 65% / 20% / 16%. Our model is 10.3 points higher than the bookmakers on the draw – the biggest disagreement on this match. Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.44 and under at 2.76.

Our Louisville City vs Miami FC prediction

The selection we are backing in Louisville City vs Miami FC: Louisville City or draw (87% confidence, best price 1.13). Correct score suggestion: 1-0. Check confirmed line-ups an hour before kick-off – a late absence can change the picture.

Quick answers

Who will win Louisville City vs Miami FC?: The model gives Louisville City 57%, the draw 30% and Miami FC 13%. Our tip is Louisville City or draw.
What is the predicted score for Louisville City vs Miami FC?: 1-0 is the most likely scoreline (13%), from expected goals of 1.6 and 0.9.
Will both teams score in Louisville City vs Miami FC?: GG is rated 47% by the model and the best GG price is 1.57.
When and where is Louisville City vs Miami FC?: Sunday 8 November, 01:00 WAT, USL Championship (quarter-finals), Lynn Family Stadium.

Compare every market on the Louisville City vs Miami FC odds page.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ only – bet responsibly.