Football prediction

Serie A Matchday 11

Sassuolo vs As Roma Prediction

Saturday 7 November, 20:45 WAT: AS Roma welcome Sassuolo in the Serie A (matchday 11). Home win 64%, draw 29%, away win 7% according to our model, and the pick is AS Roma to win (64%).

AS RomaDWDWW

20:45Sat 7 Nov 2026 · WAT

SassuoloDLLLL

Stadio Olimpico, Rome

Our prediction

AS Roma to win64% probability · best odds 1.32

64%29%7%

AS RomaDrawSassuolo

Most likely score: 3 - 1
Goals: Over 1.5 goals
Both teams to score: 57%
Expected goals: 3.1 – 1.4
Double chance: 1X 93% · 12 71% · X2 36%

Model advice: Combo Winner : AS Roma and +1.5 goals

Form and team strength

Last 5 games	AS Roma	Sassuolo
Results	DWDWW	DLLLL
Goals scored per game	2.8	1.4
Goals conceded per game	1.4	3.4

AS RomaSassuolo

92%

8%Form

67%

33%Attack

71%

29%Defence

84%

16%Poisson

80%

20%Head to head

64%

36%Goals

76%

24%Overall

Head-to-head

5AS Roma2Draws1Sassuolo

10 Jan 2026AS Roma2 - 0SassuoloSerie A
26 Oct 2025Sassuolo0 - 1AS RomaSerie A
17 Mar 2024AS Roma1 - 0SassuoloSerie A
3 Dec 2023Sassuolo1 - 2AS RomaSerie A
12 Mar 2023AS Roma3 - 4SassuoloSerie A
9 Nov 2022Sassuolo1 - 1AS RomaSerie A

Best odds (1X2)

AS Roma1.321xBetfair 74%

Draw6.43Pinnaclefair 16%

Sassuolo9.751xBetfair 10%

Compared across 6 bookmakers. Market margin 4.3%.

Compare all AS Roma vs Sassuolo odds

Model vs bookmakers

Outcome	Our model	Market (fair)	Edge
AS Roma	64%	73.8%	-9.8
Draw	29%	15.8%	+13.2
Sassuolo	7%	10.4%	-3.4

A positive edge means our model rates the outcome higher than the bookmakers’ margin-free price. It is a research signal, not a guarantee.

Serie A table position

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Form
3	AS Roma	10	+18	24	WWDWD
17	Sassuolo	10	-10	8	LLLLD

Full Serie A table and predictions

Prediction analysis

AS Roma vs Sassuolo preview, prediction and stats – 7 Nov 2026 WAT

Saturday 7 November, 20:45 WAT is the date for this Serie A matchday 11 meeting at Stadio Olimpico. AS Roma are 3rd with 24 points from 10 games (goal difference +18); Sassuolo are 17th with 8 points from 10 (-10). The 16-point gap shows the difference in quality this season.

AS Roma and Sassuolo form

Over their last 5 matches AS Roma have managed 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats (DWDWW). Sassuolo are struggling for results: 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in the last 5 (DLLLL). Over those games AS Roma averaged 2.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match, Sassuolo 1.4 and 3.4.

What the numbers say

AS Roma are the model’s favourites at 64%, 57 points clear of Sassuolo, while the draw is rated 29%. Expected goals come out at 3.1 for AS Roma and 1.4 for Sassuolo, and the most likely single scoreline is 3-1 (8%). Over 2.5 goals is rated 79% and both teams to score (GG) 69%. The clearest strengths in the team comparison: AS Roma in attack (67-33), AS Roma in defence (71-29), AS Roma in form (92-8).

Head-to-head record

In the last 8 meetings AS Roma won 5, Sassuolo won 1 and 2 ended level, an average of 2.9 goals per game. Both teams scored in 5 of them and 4 went over 2.5 goals. The most recent meeting, on 10 Jan 2026, finished AS Roma 2-0 Sassuolo.

AS Roma vs Sassuolo odds

Across 6 bookmakers the best prices are 1.32 for AS Roma (1xBet), 6.43 for the draw (Pinnacle) and 9.75 for Sassuolo (1xBet). With the margin removed the market reads 74% / 16% / 10%. Our model is 13.2 points higher than the bookmakers on the draw – the biggest disagreement on this match. Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.36 and under at 3.24.

Our AS Roma vs Sassuolo prediction

Our pick for AS Roma vs Sassuolo is AS Roma to win, rated 64%, best price 1.32. For a goals angle, the model leans towards over 1.5 goals. Correct score suggestion: 3-1. Check confirmed line-ups an hour before kick-off – a late absence can change the picture.

Quick answers

Who will win AS Roma vs Sassuolo?: The model gives AS Roma 64%, the draw 29% and Sassuolo 7%. Our tip is AS Roma to win.
What is the predicted score for AS Roma vs Sassuolo?: 3-1 is the most likely scoreline (8%), from expected goals of 3.1 and 1.4.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Sassuolo?: GG is rated 69% by the model and the best GG price is 1.67.
When and where is AS Roma vs Sassuolo?: Saturday 7 November, 20:45 WAT, Serie A (matchday 11), Stadio Olimpico.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ only – bet responsibly.