Football prediction

Eredivisie Matchday 12

Utrecht vs Nec Nijmegen Prediction

Sunday 8 November, 20:00 WAT: Utrecht welcome NEC Nijmegen in the Eredivisie (matchday 12). Home win 41%, draw 33%, away win 26% according to our model, and the pick is Utrecht or draw (74%).

UtrechtLWWDL

20:00Sun 8 Nov 2026 · WAT

NEC NijmegenDDDDL

Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht

Our prediction

Utrecht or draw74% probability · best odds 1.50

41%33%26%

UtrechtDrawNEC Nijmegen

Most likely score: 1 - 1
Both teams to score: 65%
Expected goals: 1.5 – 1.8
Double chance: 1X 74% · 12 67% · X2 59%

Model advice: Double chance : Utrecht or draw

Form and team strength

Last 5 games	Utrecht	NEC Nijmegen
Results	LWWDL	DDDDL
Goals scored per game	1.6	1.2
Goals conceded per game	2.4	1.4

UtrechtNEC Nijmegen

64%

36%Form

57%

43%Attack

37%

63%Defence

37%

63%Poisson

80%

20%Head to head

70%

30%Goals

58%

43%Overall

Head-to-head

4Utrecht2Draws2NEC Nijmegen

11 Feb 2026NEC Nijmegen1 - 3UtrechtEredivisie
2 Nov 2025Utrecht1 - 0NEC NijmegenEredivisie
15 Mar 2025Utrecht0 - 1NEC NijmegenEredivisie
24 Nov 2024NEC Nijmegen1 - 2UtrechtEredivisie
17 Mar 2024Utrecht1 - 0NEC NijmegenEredivisie
23 Sep 2023NEC Nijmegen3 - 0UtrechtEredivisie

Best odds (1X2)

Utrecht2.471xBetfair 39%

Draw3.901xBetfair 25%

NEC Nijmegen2.65Pinnaclefair 36%

Compared across 6 bookmakers. Market margin 6.4%.

Compare all Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen odds

Model vs bookmakers

Outcome	Our model	Market (fair)	Edge
Utrecht	41%	38.8%	+2.2
Draw	33%	24.9%	+8.1
NEC Nijmegen	26%	36.3%	-10.3

A positive edge means our model rates the outcome higher than the bookmakers’ margin-free price. It is a research signal, not a guarantee.

Eredivisie table position

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Form
12	Utrecht	11	-12	12	LDWWL
13	NEC Nijmegen	11	-2	11	LDDDD

Full Eredivisie table and predictions

Prediction analysis

Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen: our prediction for 8 Nov 2026 WAT

Sunday 8 November, 20:00 WAT is the date for this Eredivisie matchday 12 meeting at Stadion Galgenwaard. Utrecht are 12th with 12 points from 11 games (goal difference -12); NEC Nijmegen are 13th with 11 points from 11 (-2). Only 1 point separates them, so the result moves both sides in the table.

Utrecht and NEC Nijmegen form

Utrecht have a mixed recent record of 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats (LWWDL) across their last 5. Over their last 5 matches NEC Nijmegen have managed 0 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeat (DDDDL). Over those games Utrecht averaged 1.6 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per match, NEC Nijmegen 1.2 and 1.4.

What the numbers say

Utrecht are the model’s favourites at 41%, 15 points clear of NEC Nijmegen, while the draw is rated 33%. Expected goals come out at 1.5 for Utrecht and 1.8 for NEC Nijmegen, and the most likely single scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals is rated 64% and both teams to score (GG) 65%. The clearest strengths in the team comparison: Utrecht in attack (57-43), NEC Nijmegen in defence (63-37), Utrecht in form (64-36).

Head-to-head record

In the last 8 meetings Utrecht won 4, NEC Nijmegen won 2 and 2 ended level, an average of 2.1 goals per game. Both teams scored in 3 of them and 4 went over 2.5 goals. The most recent meeting, on 11 Feb 2026, finished NEC Nijmegen 1-3 Utrecht.

Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen odds

Across 6 bookmakers the best prices are 2.47 for Utrecht (1xBet), 3.90 for the draw (1xBet) and 2.65 for NEC Nijmegen (Pinnacle). With the margin removed the market reads 39% / 25% / 36%. Our model is 8.1 points higher than the bookmakers on the draw – the biggest disagreement on this match. Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.50 and under at 2.61.

Our Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen prediction

Our pick for Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen is Utrecht or draw, rated 74%, best price 1.50. Correct score suggestion: 1-1. Check confirmed line-ups an hour before kick-off – a late absence can change the picture.

Quick answers

Who will win Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen?: The model gives Utrecht 41%, the draw 33% and NEC Nijmegen 26%. Our tip is Utrecht or draw.
What is the predicted score for Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen?: 1-1 is the most likely scoreline (10%), from expected goals of 1.5 and 1.8.
Will both teams score in Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen?: GG is rated 65% by the model and the best GG price is 1.44.
When and where is Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen?: Sunday 8 November, 20:00 WAT, Eredivisie (matchday 12), Stadion Galgenwaard.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ only – bet responsibly.