Football prediction

Brazil Serie B predictions Matchday 38

Vila Nova vs Fortaleza Ec Prediction

Fortaleza EC host Vila Nova in the Serie B (matchday 38) on Saturday 14 November, 20:30 WAT. Our model rates the match 43% / 36% / 21% (home / draw / away), and the pick is Fortaleza EC or draw (79%).

Fortaleza ECDWDDL

20:30Sat 14 Nov 2026 · WAT

Vila NovaWDLDW

Our prediction

Fortaleza EC or draw79% probability · best odds 1.36

43%36%21%

Fortaleza ECDrawVila Nova

Most likely score: 1 - 1
Both teams to score: 47%
Expected goals: 1.4 – 1.5
Double chance: 1X 79% · 12 64% · X2 57%

Model advice: Double chance : Fortaleza EC or draw

Form and team strength

Last 5 games	Fortaleza EC	Vila Nova
Results	DWDDL	WDLDW
Goals scored per game	1.4	1.8
Goals conceded per game	1.2	1.4

Fortaleza ECVila Nova

43%

57%Form

44%

56%Attack

54%

46%Defence

63%

37%Poisson

62%

38%Head to head

60%

40%Goals

54%

46%Overall

Head-to-head

2Fortaleza EC2Draws1Vila Nova

22 Jul 2026Vila Nova2 - 1Fortaleza ECSerie B
22 Sep 2018Fortaleza EC2 - 0Vila NovaSerie B
6 Jun 2018Vila Nova0 - 0Fortaleza ECSerie B
8 Aug 2015Vila Nova0 - 0Fortaleza ECSerie C
23 May 2015Fortaleza EC3 - 2Vila NovaSerie C

Best odds (1X2)

Fortaleza EC2.23Pinnaclefair 42%

Draw3.10Bet365fair 31%

Vila Nova3.50Betfairfair 27%

Compared across 8 bookmakers. Market margin 8.2%.

Compare all Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova odds

Model vs bookmakers

Outcome	Our model	Market (fair)	Edge
Fortaleza EC	43%	42.2%	+0.8
Draw	36%	30.6%	+5.4
Vila Nova	21%	27.2%	-6.2

A positive edge means our model rates the outcome higher than the bookmakers’ margin-free price. It is a research signal, not a guarantee.

Serie B table position

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Form
3	Vila Nova	37	+15	66	WDLDW
5	Fortaleza EC	37	+11	62	LDDWD

Full Serie B table and predictions

Prediction analysis

Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova prediction and preview (14 Nov 2026 WAT)

This Serie B matchday 38 fixture is played on Saturday 14 November, 20:30 WAT. Fortaleza EC are 5th with 62 points from 37 games (goal difference +11); Vila Nova are 3rd with 66 points from 37 (+15).

Fortaleza EC and Vila Nova form

Fortaleza EC have a mixed recent record of 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat (DWDDL) across their last 5. Over their last 5 matches Vila Nova have managed 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat (WDLDW). Over those games Fortaleza EC averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match, Vila Nova 1.8 and 1.4.

What the numbers say

Fortaleza EC are the model’s favourites at 43%, 22 points clear of Vila Nova, while the draw is rated 36%. Expected goals come out at 1.4 for Fortaleza EC and 1.5 for Vila Nova, and the most likely single scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals is rated 55% and both teams to score (GG) 58%. The clearest strengths in the team comparison: Vila Nova in attack (56-44), Vila Nova in form (57-43).

Head-to-head record

In the last 5 meetings Fortaleza EC won 2, Vila Nova won 1 and 2 ended level, an average of 2.0 goals per game. Both teams scored in 2 of them and 2 went over 2.5 goals. The most recent meeting, on 22 Jul 2026, finished Vila Nova 2-1 Fortaleza EC.

Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova odds

Across 8 bookmakers the best prices are 2.23 for Fortaleza EC (Pinnacle), 3.10 for the draw (Bet365) and 3.50 for Vila Nova (Betfair). With the margin removed the market reads 42% / 31% / 27%. Our model is 5.4 points higher than the bookmakers on the draw – the biggest disagreement on this match. Over 2.5 goals is available at 2.42 and under at 1.65.

Our Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova prediction

The selection we are backing in Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova: Fortaleza EC or draw (79% confidence, best price 1.36). Correct score suggestion: 1-1. Check confirmed line-ups an hour before kick-off – a late absence can change the picture.

Quick answers

Who will win Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova?: The model gives Fortaleza EC 43%, the draw 36% and Vila Nova 21%. Our tip is Fortaleza EC or draw.
What is the predicted score for Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova?: 1-1 is the most likely scoreline (12%), from expected goals of 1.4 and 1.5.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova?: GG is rated 58% by the model and the best GG price is 2.05.
When and where is Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova?: Saturday 14 November, 20:30 WAT, Serie B (matchday 38).

Compare every market on the Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova odds page.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ only – bet responsibly.

Prediction history

Recent prediction snapshots

July 22, 2026 · Serie B10% / 45% / 45% · 2–1

September 22, 2018 · Serie B0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 · 2–0

June 6, 2018 · Serie B0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 · 0–0

August 8, 2015 · Serie C0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 · 0–0

May 23, 2015 · Serie C0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 · 3–2