Football prediction

Serie A Matchday 11

Ac Milan vs Genoa Prediction

Sunday 8 November, 15:00 WAT: Genoa welcome AC Milan in the Serie A (matchday 11). Home win 16%, draw 34%, away win 50% according to our model, and the pick is AC Milan or draw (84%).

GenoaWLWWW

15:00Sun 8 Nov 2026 · WAT

AC MilanDWWLW

Luigi Ferraris, Genoa

Our prediction

AC Milan or draw84% probability · best odds 1.22

16%34%50%

GenoaDrawAC Milan

Most likely score: 1 - 1
Both teams to score: 48%
Expected goals: 1.5 – 1.5
Double chance: 1X 50% · 12 66% · X2 84%

Model advice: Double chance : draw or AC Milan

Form and team strength

Last 5 games	Genoa	AC Milan
Results	WLWWW	DWWLW
Goals scored per game	1.4	2.2
Goals conceded per game	0.8	1.6

GenoaAC Milan

55%

45%Form

39%

61%Attack

67%

33%Defence

34%

66%Poisson

25%

75%Head to head

43%

57%Goals

44%

56%Overall

Head-to-head

0Genoa3Draws5AC Milan

17 May 2026Genoa1 - 2AC MilanSerie A
8 Jan 2026AC Milan1 - 1GenoaSerie A
5 May 2025Genoa1 - 2AC MilanSerie A
15 Dec 2024AC Milan0 - 0GenoaSerie A
5 May 2024AC Milan3 - 3GenoaSerie A
7 Oct 2023Genoa0 - 1AC MilanSerie A

Best odds (1X2)

Genoa4.84Pinnaclefair 21%

Draw3.721xBetfair 27%

AC Milan1.851xBetfair 53%

Compared across 6 bookmakers. Market margin 5.1%.

Compare all Genoa vs AC Milan odds

Model vs bookmakers

Outcome	Our model	Market (fair)	Edge
Genoa	16%	20.5%	-4.5
Draw	34%	26.7%	+7.3
AC Milan	50%	52.9%	-2.9

A positive edge means our model rates the outcome higher than the bookmakers’ margin-free price. It is a research signal, not a guarantee.

Serie A table position

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Form
5	AC Milan	10	+9	21	WLWWD
11	Genoa	10	-4	13	WWWLW

Full Serie A table and predictions

Prediction analysis

Genoa vs AC Milan prediction and preview (8 Nov 2026 WAT)

Sunday 8 November, 15:00 WAT is the date for this Serie A matchday 11 meeting at Luigi Ferraris. Genoa are 11th with 13 points from 10 games (goal difference -4); AC Milan are 5th with 21 points from 10 (+9).

Genoa and AC Milan form

Genoa arrive in strong form: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 (WLWWW). Over their last 5 matches AC Milan have managed 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat (DWWLW). Over those games Genoa averaged 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match, AC Milan 2.2 and 1.6.

What the numbers say

AC Milan are the model’s favourites at 50%, 34 points clear of Genoa, while the draw is rated 34%. Expected goals come out at 1.5 for Genoa and 1.5 for AC Milan, and the most likely single scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals is rated 57% and both teams to score (GG) 60%. The clearest strengths in the team comparison: AC Milan in attack (61-39), Genoa in defence (67-33), Genoa in form (55-45).

Head-to-head record

In the last 8 meetings Genoa won 0, AC Milan won 5 and 3 ended level, an average of 2.6 goals per game. Both teams scored in 5 of them and 4 went over 2.5 goals. The most recent meeting, on 17 May 2026, finished Genoa 1-2 AC Milan.

Genoa vs AC Milan odds

Across 6 bookmakers the best prices are 4.84 for Genoa (Pinnacle), 3.72 for the draw (1xBet) and 1.85 for AC Milan (1xBet). With the margin removed the market reads 21% / 27% / 53%. Our model is 7.3 points higher than the bookmakers on the draw – the biggest disagreement on this match. Over 2.5 goals is available at 2.17 and under at 1.81.

Our Genoa vs AC Milan prediction

Our pick for Genoa vs AC Milan is AC Milan or draw, rated 84%, best price 1.22. Correct score suggestion: 1-1. Check confirmed line-ups an hour before kick-off – a late absence can change the picture.

Quick answers

Who will win Genoa vs AC Milan?: The model gives Genoa 16%, the draw 34% and AC Milan 50%. Our tip is AC Milan or draw.
What is the predicted score for Genoa vs AC Milan?: 1-1 is the most likely scoreline (11%), from expected goals of 1.5 and 1.5.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs AC Milan?: GG is rated 60% by the model and the best GG price is 1.95.
When and where is Genoa vs AC Milan?: Sunday 8 November, 15:00 WAT, Serie A (matchday 11), Luigi Ferraris.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ only – bet responsibly.