Football prediction

Serie A Matchday 11

Atalanta vs Monza Prediction

Monza vs Atalanta kicks off on Sunday 8 November, 15:00 WAT in the Serie A (matchday 11). The model gives Monza 21%, the draw 33% and Atalanta 46%, and the pick is Atalanta to win (46%).

MonzaLWLLL

15:00Sun 8 Nov 2026 · WAT

AtalantaWLDDL

Stadio Brianteo, Monza

Our prediction

Atalanta to win46% probability · best odds 2.11

21%33%46%

MonzaDrawAtalanta

Most likely score: 2 - 2
Goals: Over 1.5 goals
Both teams to score: 63%
Expected goals: 2.2 – 2.3
Double chance: 1X 54% · 12 67% · X2 79%

Model advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Atalanta and +1.5 goals

Form and team strength

Last 5 games	Monza	Atalanta
Results	LWLLL	WLDDL
Goals scored per game	1.8	2.2
Goals conceded per game	2.4	2.6

MonzaAtalanta

38%

63%Form

45%

55%Attack

52%

48%Defence

66%

34%Poisson

100%Head to head

16%

84%Goals

43%

57%Overall

Head-to-head

0Monza0Draws6Atalanta

4 May 2025Monza0 - 4AtalantaSerie A
30 Oct 2024Atalanta2 - 0MonzaSerie A
21 Apr 2024Monza1 - 2AtalantaSerie A
2 Sep 2023Atalanta3 - 0MonzaSerie A
4 Jun 2023Atalanta5 - 2MonzaSerie A
5 Sep 2022Monza0 - 2AtalantaSerie A

Best odds (1X2)

Monza3.441xBetfair 29%

Draw4.011xBetfair 25%

Atalanta2.11Pinnaclefair 46%

Compared across 6 bookmakers. Market margin 4.9%.

Compare all Monza vs Atalanta odds

Model vs bookmakers

Outcome	Our model	Market (fair)	Edge
Monza	21%	28.9%	-7.9
Draw	33%	25.1%	+7.9
Atalanta	46%	46.0%	0.0

A positive edge means our model rates the outcome higher than the bookmakers’ margin-free price. It is a research signal, not a guarantee.

Serie A table position

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Form
13	Atalanta	10	-4	11	LDDLW
18	Monza	10	-7	7	LLLWL

Full Serie A table and predictions

Prediction analysis

Monza vs Atalanta preview, prediction and stats – 8 Nov 2026 WAT

Sunday 8 November, 15:00 WAT is the date for this Serie A matchday 11 meeting at Stadio Brianteo. Monza are 18th with 7 points from 10 games (goal difference -7); Atalanta are 13th with 11 points from 10 (-4).

Monza and Atalanta form

Form is a concern for Monza, who have 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats from their last 5 (LWLLL). Atalanta have a mixed recent record of 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats (WLDDL) across their last 5. Over those games Monza averaged 1.8 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per match, Atalanta 2.2 and 2.6.

What the numbers say

Atalanta are the model’s favourites at 46%, 25 points clear of Monza, while the draw is rated 33%. Expected goals come out at 2.2 for Monza and 2.3 for Atalanta, and the most likely single scoreline is 2-2 (7%). Over 2.5 goals is rated 81% and both teams to score (GG) 79%. The clearest strengths in the team comparison: Atalanta in attack (55-45), Atalanta in form (63-38).

Head-to-head record

In the last 6 meetings Monza won 0, Atalanta won 6 and 0 ended level, an average of 3.5 goals per game. Both teams scored in 2 of them and 4 went over 2.5 goals. The most recent meeting, on 4 May 2025, finished Monza 0-4 Atalanta.

Monza vs Atalanta odds

Across 6 bookmakers the best prices are 3.44 for Monza (1xBet), 4.01 for the draw (1xBet) and 2.11 for Atalanta (Pinnacle). With the margin removed the market reads 29% / 25% / 46%. Our model is 7.9 points higher than the bookmakers on the draw – the biggest disagreement on this match. Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.63 and under at 2.54.

Our Monza vs Atalanta prediction

Our pick for Monza vs Atalanta is Atalanta to win, rated 46%, best price 2.11. For a goals angle, the model leans towards over 1.5 goals. Correct score suggestion: 2-2. Check confirmed line-ups an hour before kick-off – a late absence can change the picture.

Quick answers

Who will win Monza vs Atalanta?: The model gives Monza 21%, the draw 33% and Atalanta 46%. Our tip is Atalanta to win.
What is the predicted score for Monza vs Atalanta?: 2-2 is the most likely scoreline (7%), from expected goals of 2.2 and 2.3.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Atalanta?: GG is rated 79% by the model and the best GG price is 1.50.
When and where is Monza vs Atalanta?: Sunday 8 November, 15:00 WAT, Serie A (matchday 11), Stadio Brianteo.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ only – bet responsibly.