Football prediction

Serie A Matchday 11

Bologna vs Parma Prediction

Saturday 7 November, 18:00 WAT: Parma welcome Bologna in the Serie A (matchday 11). Home win 17%, draw 34%, away win 49% according to our model, and the pick is Bologna or draw (83%).

ParmaLLLDW

18:00Sat 7 Nov 2026 · WAT

BolognaWLWWW

Ennio Tardini, Parma

Our prediction

Bologna or draw83% probability · best odds 1.24

17%34%49%

ParmaDrawBologna

Most likely score: 1 - 1
Both teams to score: 48%
Expected goals: 1.1 – 1.9
Double chance: 1X 51% · 12 66% · X2 83%

Model advice: Double chance : draw or Bologna

Form and team strength

Last 5 games	Parma	Bologna
Results	LLLDW	WLWWW
Goals scored per game	0.8	2.2
Goals conceded per game	1.6	1.4

ParmaBologna

25%

75%Form

27%

73%Attack

47%

53%Defence

23%

77%Poisson

50%

50%Head to head

50%

50%Goals

37%

63%Overall

Head-to-head

2Parma2Draws4Bologna

8 Feb 2026Bologna0 - 1ParmaSerie A
4 Dec 2025Bologna2 - 1ParmaCoppa Italia
2 Nov 2025Parma1 - 3BolognaSerie A
22 Feb 2025Parma2 - 0BolognaSerie A
6 Oct 2024Bologna0 - 0ParmaSerie A
7 Feb 2021Parma0 - 3BolognaSerie A

Best odds (1X2)

Parma4.63Pinnaclefair 21%

Draw3.681xBetfair 27%

Bologna1.891xBetfair 52%

Compared across 6 bookmakers. Market margin 4.8%.

Compare all Parma vs Bologna odds

Model vs bookmakers

Outcome	Our model	Market (fair)	Edge
Parma	17%	21.3%	-4.3
Draw	34%	26.9%	+7.1
Bologna	49%	51.8%	-2.8

A positive edge means our model rates the outcome higher than the bookmakers’ margin-free price. It is a research signal, not a guarantee.

Serie A table position

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Form
9	Bologna	10	+1	14	WWWLW
15	Parma	10	-7	8	WDLLL

Full Serie A table and predictions

Prediction analysis

Parma vs Bologna preview, prediction and stats – 7 Nov 2026 WAT

Saturday 7 November, 18:00 WAT is the date for this Serie A matchday 11 meeting at Ennio Tardini. Parma are 15th with 8 points from 10 games (goal difference -7); Bologna are 9th with 14 points from 10 (+1).

Parma and Bologna form

Form is a concern for Parma, who have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 (LLLDW). Bologna arrive in strong form: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 (WLWWW). Over those games Parma averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per match, Bologna 2.2 and 1.4.

What the numbers say

Bologna are the model’s favourites at 49%, 32 points clear of Parma, while the draw is rated 34%. Expected goals come out at 1.1 for Parma and 1.9 for Bologna, and the most likely single scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals is rated 57% and both teams to score (GG) 56%. The clearest strengths in the team comparison: Bologna in attack (73-27), Bologna in form (75-25).

Head-to-head record

In the last 8 meetings Parma won 2, Bologna won 4 and 2 ended level, an average of 2.8 goals per game. Both teams scored in 4 of them and 5 went over 2.5 goals. The most recent meeting, on 8 Feb 2026, finished Bologna 0-1 Parma.

Parma vs Bologna odds

Across 6 bookmakers the best prices are 4.63 for Parma (Pinnacle), 3.68 for the draw (1xBet) and 1.89 for Bologna (1xBet). With the margin removed the market reads 21% / 27% / 52%. Our model is 7.1 points higher than the bookmakers on the draw – the biggest disagreement on this match. Over 2.5 goals is available at 2.19 and under at 1.79.

Our Parma vs Bologna prediction

Our pick for Parma vs Bologna is Bologna or draw, rated 83%, best price 1.24. Correct score suggestion: 1-1. Check confirmed line-ups an hour before kick-off – a late absence can change the picture.

Quick answers

Who will win Parma vs Bologna?: The model gives Parma 17%, the draw 34% and Bologna 49%. Our tip is Bologna or draw.
What is the predicted score for Parma vs Bologna?: 1-1 is the most likely scoreline (10%), from expected goals of 1.1 and 1.9.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Bologna?: GG is rated 56% by the model and the best GG price is 1.95.
When and where is Parma vs Bologna?: Saturday 7 November, 18:00 WAT, Serie A (matchday 11), Ennio Tardini.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ only – bet responsibly.