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Championship
Burnley BurnleyHome
LDLDL
Saturday, Sep 19, 2026 Turf Moor, Burnley
Derby DerbyAway
LLLWL

Burnley vs Derby Prediction

Double chance : Burnley or draw Review the Burnley vs Derby prediction with probability split, expected goals, comparison signals and match context for Championship.

Match PredictionConnected model prediction
Current
Burnley45%
Draw45%
Derby10%
Model adviceDouble chance : Burnley or drawStrongest probability: 45%
Likely Score-2.5–-1.5Expected goals
Goals MarketWhen returned by feed
Winner SignalBurnleyWin or draw
Double Chance1XOnly when supported

Key Match Insights

  • Burnley has the strongest current 1X2 model signal at 45%.
  • The connected prediction feed currently returns an expected-goals score of -2.5–-1.5.
  • Double chance : Burnley or draw

Model Comparison

Home vs away signal
Form40% / 60%
Attacking potential63% / 38%
Defensive potential45% / 55%
Poisson distribution51% / 49%
Head to head75% / 25%
Goals H2H75% / 25%
Overall signal58.2% / 42%

Team Form

Last 5 completed matches
Burnley
LDLDL
Swansea1–3L
Wrexham1–1D
Bristol City1–2L
Middlesbrough1–1D
Norwich1–4L
40% Form Rating 60%
Derby
LLLWL
Birmingham1–2L
West Brom0–1L
West Ham0–3L
Portsmouth2–0W
Swansea0–3L

Head to Head

Last 6 meetings
Burnley2–1Derby
Derby0–0Burnley
Burnley0–0Derby
Burnley4–1Derby
Derby0–0Burnley
Burnley2–0Derby

Top Prediction Signals for This Match

Strongest 1X2Burnley45%
Expected Score-2.5–-1.5Model goals
Goals SignalFeed market
Double Chance1XIf supported
Prediction analysis

Burnley vs Derby prediction analysis