Football prediction

Primera Nacional predictions Round of 16

Deportivo Madryn vs Deportivo Maipu Prediction

Deportivo Madryn vs Deportivo Maipu kicks off on Saturday 14 November, 23:00 WAT in the Primera Nacional (round of 16). The model gives Deportivo Madryn 53%, the draw 33% and Deportivo Maipu 14%, and the pick is Deportivo Madryn or draw (86%).

Deportivo MadrynWLDWW

23:00Sat 14 Nov 2026 · WAT

Deportivo MaipuWDLWD

Estadio Abel Sastre, Puerto Madryn

Our prediction

Deportivo Madryn or draw86% probability · best odds 1.15

53%33%14%

Deportivo MadrynDrawDeportivo Maipu

Most likely score: 1 - 0
Both teams to score: 44%
Expected goals: 1.1 – 0.8
Double chance: 1X 86% · 12 67% · X2 47%

Model advice: Double chance : Deportivo Madryn or draw

Form and team strength

Last 5 games	Deportivo Madryn	Deportivo Maipu
Results	WLDWW	WDLWD
Goals scored per game	1.6	1.0
Goals conceded per game	0.6	0.6

Deportivo MadrynDeportivo Maipu

56%

44%Form

62%

38%Attack

50%

50%Defence

62%

38%Poisson

25%

75%Head to head

43%

57%Goals

50%

50%Overall

Head-to-head

1Deportivo Madryn3Draws4Deportivo Maipu

31 Aug 2025Deportivo Maipu2 - 1Deportivo MadrynPrimera Nacional
26 Apr 2025Deportivo Madryn1 - 1Deportivo MaipuPrimera Nacional
25 Sep 2023Deportivo Maipu0 - 0Deportivo MadrynPrimera Nacional
13 May 2023Deportivo Madryn2 - 3Deportivo MaipuPrimera Nacional
27 Aug 2022Deportivo Maipu2 - 2Deportivo MadrynPrimera Nacional
31 Jan 2021Deportivo Maipu2 - 0Deportivo MadrynTorneo Federal A

Best odds (1X2)

Deportivo Madryn1.60Bet365fair 58%

Draw3.75Pinnaclefair 26%

Deportivo Maipu6.02Pinnaclefair 16%

Compared across 8 bookmakers. Market margin 9.4%.

Compare all Deportivo Madryn vs Deportivo Maipu odds

Model vs bookmakers

Outcome	Our model	Market (fair)	Edge
Deportivo Madryn	53%	57.9%	-4.9
Draw	33%	25.8%	+7.2
Deportivo Maipu	14%	16.3%	-2.3

A positive edge means our model rates the outcome higher than the bookmakers’ margin-free price. It is a research signal, not a guarantee.

Primera Nacional table position

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Form
4	Deportivo Madryn	36	+21	60	WWDLW
6	Deportivo Maipu	36	+9	52	DWLDW

Full Primera Nacional table and predictions

Prediction analysis

Deportivo Madryn vs Deportivo Maipu prediction and preview (14 Nov 2026 WAT)

Saturday 14 November, 23:00 WAT is the date for this Primera Nacional round of 16 meeting at Estadio Abel Sastre. Deportivo Madryn are 4th with 60 points from 36 games (goal difference +21); Deportivo Maipu are 6th with 52 points from 36 (+9).

Deportivo Madryn and Deportivo Maipu form

Over their last 5 matches Deportivo Madryn have managed 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat (WLDWW). Deportivo Maipu have a mixed recent record of 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat (WDLWD) across their last 5. Over those games Deportivo Madryn averaged 1.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per match, Deportivo Maipu 1.0 and 0.6.

What the numbers say

Deportivo Madryn are the model’s favourites at 53%, 39 points clear of Deportivo Maipu, while the draw is rated 33%. Expected goals come out at 1.1 for Deportivo Madryn and 0.8 for Deportivo Maipu, and the most likely single scoreline is 1-0 (16%). Over 2.5 goals is rated 30% and both teams to score (GG) 37%. The clearest strengths in the team comparison: Deportivo Madryn in attack (62-38), Deportivo Madryn in form (56-44).

Head-to-head record

In the last 8 meetings Deportivo Madryn won 1, Deportivo Maipu won 4 and 3 ended level, an average of 3.0 goals per game. Both teams scored in 5 of them and 5 went over 2.5 goals. The most recent meeting, on 31 Aug 2025, finished Deportivo Maipu 2-1 Deportivo Madryn.

Deportivo Madryn vs Deportivo Maipu odds

Across 8 bookmakers the best prices are 1.60 for Deportivo Madryn (Bet365), 3.75 for the draw (Pinnacle) and 6.02 for Deportivo Maipu (Pinnacle). With the margin removed the market reads 58% / 26% / 16%. Our model is 7.2 points higher than the bookmakers on the draw – the biggest disagreement on this match. Over 2.5 goals is available at 2.25 and under at 1.66.

Our Deportivo Madryn vs Deportivo Maipu prediction

Our pick for Deportivo Madryn vs Deportivo Maipu is Deportivo Madryn or draw, rated 86%, best price 1.15. Correct score suggestion: 1-0. Check confirmed line-ups an hour before kick-off – a late absence can change the picture.

Quick answers

Who will win Deportivo Madryn vs Deportivo Maipu?: The model gives Deportivo Madryn 53%, the draw 33% and Deportivo Maipu 14%. Our tip is Deportivo Madryn or draw.
What is the predicted score for Deportivo Madryn vs Deportivo Maipu?: 1-0 is the most likely scoreline (16%), from expected goals of 1.1 and 0.8.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Madryn vs Deportivo Maipu?: GG is rated 37% by the model and the best GG price is 2.20.
When and where is Deportivo Madryn vs Deportivo Maipu?: Saturday 14 November, 23:00 WAT, Primera Nacional (round of 16), Estadio Abel Sastre.

Compare every market on the Deportivo Madryn vs Deportivo Maipu odds page.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ only – bet responsibly.