Football prediction

Championship Matchday 15

Stoke City vs Portsmouth Prediction

Saturday 7 November, 13:30 WAT: Portsmouth welcome Stoke City in the Championship (matchday 15). Home win 28%, draw 36%, away win 36% according to our model, and the pick is Stoke City or draw (72%).

PortsmouthWDWDW

13:30Sat 7 Nov 2026 · WAT

Stoke CityLWDWW

Fratton Park, Portsmouth

Our prediction

Stoke City or draw72% probability · best odds 1.62

28%36%36%

PortsmouthDrawStoke City

Most likely score: 1 - 0
Both teams to score: 51%
Expected goals: 1.1 – 1.0
Double chance: 1X 64% · 12 64% · X2 72%

Model advice: Double chance : draw or Stoke City

Form and team strength

Last 5 games	Portsmouth	Stoke City
Results	WDWDW	LWDWW
Goals scored per game	1.4	1.4
Goals conceded per game	0.6	0.8

PortsmouthStoke City

52%

48%Form

50%

50%Attack

57%

43%Defence

51%

49%Poisson

40%

60%Head to head

37%

63%Goals

48%

52%Overall

Head-to-head

2Portsmouth0Draws3Stoke City

25 Apr 2026Stoke City1 - 3PortsmouthChampionship
25 Oct 2025Portsmouth0 - 1Stoke CityChampionship
22 Jan 2025Portsmouth3 - 1Stoke CityChampionship
2 Oct 2024Stoke City6 - 1PortsmouthChampionship
27 Aug 2014Stoke City3 - 0PortsmouthLeague Cup

Best odds (1X2)

Portsmouth2.37Betanofair 40%

Draw3.30Dafabetfair 30%

Stoke City3.23Pinnaclefair 30%

Compared across 10 bookmakers. Market margin 7.1%.

Compare all Portsmouth vs Stoke City odds

Model vs bookmakers

Outcome	Our model	Market (fair)	Edge
Portsmouth	28%	40.4%	-12.4
Draw	36%	29.6%	+6.4
Stoke City	36%	30.0%	+6.0

A positive edge means our model rates the outcome higher than the bookmakers’ margin-free price. It is a research signal, not a guarantee.

Championship table position

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Form
4	Stoke City	14	+5	26	WWDWL
10	Portsmouth	14	+3	22	WDWDW

Full Championship table and predictions

Prediction analysis

Portsmouth vs Stoke City: our prediction for 7 Nov 2026 WAT

This Championship matchday 15 fixture is played on Saturday 7 November, 13:30 WAT at Fratton Park. Portsmouth are 10th with 22 points from 14 games (goal difference +3); Stoke City are 4th with 26 points from 14 (+5).

Portsmouth and Stoke City form

Portsmouth have a mixed recent record of 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats (WDWDW) across their last 5. Over their last 5 matches Stoke City have managed 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat (LWDWW). Over those games Portsmouth averaged 1.4 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per match, Stoke City 1.4 and 0.8.

What the numbers say

The model sees little between the teams: Portsmouth 28%, Stoke City 36%, with 36% on the draw. Expected goals come out at 1.1 for Portsmouth and 1.0 for Stoke City, and the most likely single scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Over 2.5 goals is rated 35% and both teams to score (GG) 42%. The clearest strengths in the team comparison: Portsmouth in defence (57-43).

Head-to-head record

In the last 5 meetings Portsmouth won 2, Stoke City won 3 and 0 ended level, an average of 3.8 goals per game. Both teams scored in 3 of them and 4 went over 2.5 goals. The most recent meeting, on 25 Apr 2026, finished Stoke City 1-3 Portsmouth.

Portsmouth vs Stoke City odds

Across 10 bookmakers the best prices are 2.37 for Portsmouth (Betano), 3.30 for the draw (Dafabet) and 3.23 for Stoke City (Pinnacle). With the margin removed the market reads 40% / 30% / 30%. Our model is 6.4 points higher than the bookmakers on the draw – the biggest disagreement on this match. Over 2.5 goals is available at 2.21 and under at 1.72.

Our Portsmouth vs Stoke City prediction

The selection we are backing in Portsmouth vs Stoke City: Stoke City or draw (72% confidence, best price 1.62). Correct score suggestion: 1-0. Check confirmed line-ups an hour before kick-off – a late absence can change the picture.

Quick answers

Who will win Portsmouth vs Stoke City?: The model gives Portsmouth 28%, the draw 36% and Stoke City 36%. Our tip is Stoke City or draw.
What is the predicted score for Portsmouth vs Stoke City?: 1-0 is the most likely scoreline (13%), from expected goals of 1.1 and 1.0.
Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Stoke City?: GG is rated 42% by the model and the best GG price is 1.87.
When and where is Portsmouth vs Stoke City?: Saturday 7 November, 13:30 WAT, Championship (matchday 15), Fratton Park.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ only – bet responsibly.