Football prediction

League One Matchday 15

Burton Albion vs Milton Keynes Dons Prediction

Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion kicks off on Saturday 14 November, 16:00 WAT in the League One (matchday 15). The model gives Milton Keynes Dons 51%, the draw 32% and Burton Albion 17%, and the pick is Milton Keynes Dons to win (51%).

Milton Keynes DonsWLWWW

16:00Sat 14 Nov 2026 · WAT

Burton AlbionLDDWL

Stadium MK, Milton Keynes

Our prediction

Milton Keynes Dons to win51% probability · best odds 1.70

51%32%17%

Milton Keynes DonsDrawBurton Albion

Most likely score: 1 - 0
Both teams to score: 57%
Expected goals: 1.9 – 0.9
Double chance: 1X 83% · 12 68% · X2 49%

Model advice: Winner : Milton Keynes Dons

Form and team strength

Last 5 games	Milton Keynes Dons	Burton Albion
Results	WLWWW	LDDWL
Goals scored per game	2.6	0.8
Goals conceded per game	1.0	1.2

Milton Keynes DonsBurton Albion

71%

29%Form

76%

24%Attack

55%

45%Defence

70%

30%Poisson

85%

15%Head to head

71%

29%Goals

71%

29%Overall

Head-to-head

4Milton Keynes Dons3Draws1Burton Albion

7 May 2023Burton Albion0 - 0Milton Keynes DonsLeague One
3 Dec 2022Milton Keynes Dons1 - 1Burton AlbionLeague One
25 Jan 2022Burton Albion0 - 1Milton Keynes DonsLeague One
20 Nov 2021Milton Keynes Dons1 - 0Burton AlbionLeague One
31 Aug 2021Burton Albion1 - 2Milton Keynes DonsEFL Trophy
20 Mar 2021Burton Albion1 - 2Milton Keynes DonsLeague One

Best odds (1X2)

Milton Keynes Dons1.70Betanofair 56%

Draw4.00Betfairfair 24%

Burton Albion4.70Marathonbetfair 20%

Compared across 9 bookmakers. Market margin 8.7%.

Compare all Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion odds

Model vs bookmakers

Outcome	Our model	Market (fair)	Edge
Milton Keynes Dons	51%	55.8%	-4.8
Draw	32%	23.9%	+8.1
Burton Albion	17%	20.3%	-3.3

A positive edge means our model rates the outcome higher than the bookmakers’ margin-free price. It is a research signal, not a guarantee.

Prediction analysis

Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion prediction and preview (14 Nov 2026 WAT)

This League One matchday 15 fixture is played on Saturday 14 November, 16:00 WAT at Stadium MK.

Milton Keynes Dons and Burton Albion form

Milton Keynes Dons are flying, with 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 games (WLWWW). Burton Albion have a mixed recent record of 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats (LDDWL) across their last 5. Over those games Milton Keynes Dons averaged 2.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match, Burton Albion 0.8 and 1.2.

What the numbers say

Milton Keynes Dons are the model’s favourites at 51%, 34 points clear of Burton Albion, while the draw is rated 32%. Expected goals come out at 1.9 for Milton Keynes Dons and 0.9 for Burton Albion, and the most likely single scoreline is 1-0 (12%). Over 2.5 goals is rated 53% and both teams to score (GG) 50%. The clearest strengths in the team comparison: Milton Keynes Dons in attack (76-24), Milton Keynes Dons in defence (55-45), Milton Keynes Dons in form (71-29).

Head-to-head record

In the last 8 meetings Milton Keynes Dons won 4, Burton Albion won 1 and 3 ended level, an average of 1.6 goals per game. Both teams scored in 4 of them and 2 went over 2.5 goals. The most recent meeting, on 7 May 2023, finished Burton Albion 0-0 Milton Keynes Dons.

Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion odds

Across 9 bookmakers the best prices are 1.70 for Milton Keynes Dons (Betano), 4.00 for the draw (Betfair) and 4.70 for Burton Albion (Marathonbet). With the margin removed the market reads 56% / 24% / 20%. Our model is 8.1 points higher than the bookmakers on the draw – the biggest disagreement on this match. Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.68 and under at 2.20.

Our Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion prediction

The selection we are backing in Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion: Milton Keynes Dons to win (51% confidence, best price 1.70). Correct score suggestion: 1-0. Check confirmed line-ups an hour before kick-off – a late absence can change the picture.

Quick answers

Who will win Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion?: The model gives Milton Keynes Dons 51%, the draw 32% and Burton Albion 17%. Our tip is Milton Keynes Dons to win.
What is the predicted score for Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion?: 1-0 is the most likely scoreline (12%), from expected goals of 1.9 and 0.9.
Will both teams score in Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion?: GG is rated 50% by the model and the best GG price is 1.67.
When and where is Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion?: Saturday 14 November, 16:00 WAT, League One (matchday 15), Stadium MK.

Compare every market on the Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion odds page.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ only – bet responsibly.