Football prediction

USL Championship predictions Semi-finals

New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic Prediction

Monday 16 November, 01:00 WAT: New Mexico United welcome Sacramento Republic in the USL Championship (semi-finals). Home win 23%, draw 36%, away win 41% according to our model, and the pick is Sacramento Republic or draw (77%).

New Mexico UnitedWLWWW

01:00Mon 16 Nov 2026 · WAT

Sacramento RepublicDWWWW

Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park

Our prediction

Sacramento Republic or draw77% probability · best odds 1.42

23%36%41%

New Mexico UnitedDrawSacramento Republic

Most likely score: 1 - 0
Both teams to score: 54%
Expected goals: 1.4 – 1.0
Double chance: 1X 59% · 12 64% · X2 77%

Model advice: Double chance : draw or Sacramento Republic

Form and team strength

Last 5 games	New Mexico United	Sacramento Republic
Results	WLWWW	DWWWW
Goals scored per game	2.0	1.6
Goals conceded per game	0.4	0.8

New Mexico UnitedSacramento Republic

48%

52%Form

56%

44%Attack

67%

33%Defence

57%

43%Poisson

20%

80%Head to head

27%

73%Goals

46%

54%Overall

Head-to-head

2New Mexico United1Draws5Sacramento Republic

27 Sep 2026New Mexico United2 - 3Sacramento RepublicUSL Championship
21 Jun 2026Sacramento Republic0 - 1New Mexico UnitedUSL Championship
31 Aug 2025New Mexico United0 - 2Sacramento RepublicUSL Championship
9 Mar 2025Sacramento Republic2 - 1New Mexico UnitedUSL Championship
30 Sep 2024Sacramento Republic4 - 0New Mexico UnitedUSL Championship
19 Sep 2024New Mexico United3 - 1Sacramento RepublicUSL Championship

Best odds (1X2)

New Mexico United3.04Pinnaclefair 32%

Draw3.40Bet365fair 30%

Sacramento Republic2.64Pinnaclefair 38%

Compared across 9 bookmakers. Market margin 9.4%.

Compare all New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic odds

Model vs bookmakers

Outcome	Our model	Market (fair)	Edge
New Mexico United	23%	32.1%	-9.1
Draw	36%	29.9%	+6.1
Sacramento Republic	41%	38.1%	+2.9

A positive edge means our model rates the outcome higher than the bookmakers’ margin-free price. It is a research signal, not a guarantee.

USL Championship table position

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Form
1	New Mexico United	30	+11	52	WWWLW
2	Sacramento Republic	30	+14	51	WWWWD

Full USL Championship table and predictions

Prediction analysis

New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic preview, prediction and stats – 16 Nov 2026 WAT

This USL Championship semi-finals fixture is played on Monday 16 November, 01:00 WAT at Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park. New Mexico United are 1st with 52 points from 30 games (goal difference +11); Sacramento Republic are 2nd with 51 points from 30 (+14). Only 1 point separates them, so the result moves both sides in the table.

New Mexico United and Sacramento Republic form

New Mexico United arrive in strong form: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 (WLWWW). Sacramento Republic are flying, with 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 games (DWWWW). Over those games New Mexico United averaged 2.0 goals scored and 0.4 conceded per match, Sacramento Republic 1.6 and 0.8.

What the numbers say

Sacramento Republic are the model’s favourites at 41%, 18 points clear of New Mexico United, while the draw is rated 36%. Expected goals come out at 1.4 for New Mexico United and 1.0 for Sacramento Republic, and the most likely single scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Over 2.5 goals is rated 43% and both teams to score (GG) 48%. The clearest strengths in the team comparison: New Mexico United in attack (56-44), New Mexico United in defence (67-33).

Head-to-head record

In the last 8 meetings New Mexico United won 2, Sacramento Republic won 5 and 1 ended level, an average of 2.5 goals per game. Both teams scored in 3 of them and 4 went over 2.5 goals. The most recent meeting, on 27 Sep 2026, finished New Mexico United 2-3 Sacramento Republic.

New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic odds

Across 9 bookmakers the best prices are 3.04 for New Mexico United (Pinnacle), 3.40 for the draw (Bet365) and 2.64 for Sacramento Republic (Pinnacle). With the margin removed the market reads 32% / 30% / 38%. Our model is 6.1 points higher than the bookmakers on the draw – the biggest disagreement on this match. Over 2.5 goals is available at 2.00 and under at 1.83.

Our New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic prediction

The selection we are backing in New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic: Sacramento Republic or draw (77% confidence, best price 1.42). Correct score suggestion: 1-0. Check confirmed line-ups an hour before kick-off – a late absence can change the picture.

Quick answers

Who will win New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?: The model gives New Mexico United 23%, the draw 36% and Sacramento Republic 41%. Our tip is Sacramento Republic or draw.
What is the predicted score for New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?: 1-0 is the most likely scoreline (13%), from expected goals of 1.4 and 1.0.
Will both teams score in New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?: GG is rated 48% by the model and the best GG price is 1.80.
When and where is New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?: Monday 16 November, 01:00 WAT, USL Championship (semi-finals), Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park.

Compare every market on the New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic odds page.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ only – bet responsibly.

Prediction history

Recent prediction snapshots

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